Humana beats its star goal for 2028 bonuses; one-time gain not sized

HUM · Published October 9, 2026 · Filing dated October 9, 2026 · Open the filing ↗

Summary

Humana is a health insurer that got 83% of its 2025 premiums and services revenue from federal government contracts, mostly Medicare. On October 9 it said it beat its goal in the final 2027 star ratings, which set its bonus pay in 2028. [J11] Form 10-K, Item 1, BusinessDuring 2025, 83% of our total premiums and services revenue were derived from contracts with the federal governmentHumana annual report on Form 10-K for 2025, filed February 19, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000009/hum-20251231.htm [J01] Form 10-K, Note 17, Medicare productsOur Medicare products, which accounted for approximately 83 % of our total premiums and services revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025Humana annual report on Form 10-K for 2025, filed February 19, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000009/hum-20251231.htm [A01] Form 8-K, Item 7.01, 2027 Medicare Advantage Star RatingsBased on final 2027 Medicare Advantage (MA) Star Ratings data (Bonus Year 2028) provided by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) on October 8, 2026, Humana Inc. ("the Company") has exceeded its goal of Top Quartile results, which is defined as Stars revenue per member per month (PMPM) 10% above the peer group median.Humana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm Humana prices its plans for a top-quarter result and expects part of the beat above it to be one-time, funding 2028 investments and payouts to holders. [A07] Form 8-K, Item 7.01the Company intends to manage its product and benefit structure assuming performance that approximates Top Quartile resultsHumana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm [A08] Form 8-K, Item 7.01the Company anticipates some of the outperformance in BY28 relative to Top Quartile will be one time in nature, and it will manage its expenses as suchHumana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm [A09] Form 8-K, Item 7.01the Company expects a benefit for 2028 that will be utilized for one-time investments and return to shareholdersHumana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm It has not put a total on that benefit. Humana expects adjusted earnings of at least $9.00 a share in 2026, down from $17.14 in 2025, and it blames the ratings it lost. [A10] Form 8-K, Item 7.01The Company will share more on the level of and expected use of the one-time benefit once it has more 2028 information, including insight into competitive dynamics and the rate and regulatory environment, along with a view of its expected contract mix and membership size and mix.Humana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm [A13] Form 8-K, 2026 Earnings GuidanceHumana affirms its guidance of at least $9.00 in adjusted earnings per common share ("Adjusted EPS"), for the year ending December 31, 2026Humana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm [E07] Prepared remarks, executive summaryreporting Full Year (FY) Adjusted EPS of $17.14Humana fourth quarter 2025 prepared management remarks, Exhibit 99.3 to Form 8-K, February 11, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000005/a4q2025humanaincpostedrema.htm [F01] Earnings release, FY 2026 guidanceThe FY 2026 Adjusted EPS guidance anticipates a year-over-year decline as a result of the Star Ratings headwind for Bonus Year (BY) 2026, net of mitigation.Humana second quarter 2026 earnings release, Exhibit 99.1 to Form 8-K, July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000045/hum-2026q2xex99x1briefxjul.htm The stock traded at $387.28 at the end of trading on October 8, before Humana's news, about 43 times that 2026 figure. On October 9 it traded at $435.73 at 12:03 PM ET, about 13% higher. [P04] Tiingo IEX price, last minute of regular tradingHUM traded at $387.28 at 3:59 PM ET on October 8, 2026 (Tiingo IEX)IEX closing prices for HUM, September 30 to October 7, 2026, and its Tiingo IEX prices in the last minute of trading on October 8 and during trading on October 9, 2026Open source ↗https://iextrading.com/trading/market-data/ [A13] Form 8-K, 2026 Earnings GuidanceHumana affirms its guidance of at least $9.00 in adjusted earnings per common share ("Adjusted EPS"), for the year ending December 31, 2026Humana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm [P05] Tiingo IEX intraday priceHUM traded at $435.73 at 12:03 PM ET on October 9, 2026 (Tiingo IEX)IEX closing prices for HUM, September 30 to October 7, 2026, and its Tiingo IEX prices in the last minute of trading on October 8 and during trading on October 9, 2026Open source ↗https://iextrading.com/trading/market-data/ Humana holds an investor update on December 10, 2026. It plans to size the one-time gain by its call on fourth-quarter 2027 results. [A12] Form 8-K, Item 7.01the Company will hold a virtual investor update on December 10th, 2026, to provide a mark to market against the framework laid out at its 2025 Investor DayHumana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm [A10] Form 8-K, Item 7.01The Company will share more on the level of and expected use of the one-time benefit once it has more 2028 information, including insight into competitive dynamics and the rate and regulatory environment, along with a view of its expected contract mix and membership size and mix.Humana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm [A11] Form 8-K, Item 7.01The Company intends to share this information prior to or when giving detailed 2028 financial guidance on the fourth quarter 2027 earnings call.Humana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm

How Humana lost its stars

Humana sells health plans, mostly to people on Medicare, the federal health plan for seniors. In Medicare Advantage, the government usually pays a private plan a set amount for each member each month. [J09] Form 10-K, Item 1, MedicareMedicare is a federal program that provides persons age 65 and over and some disabled persons under the age of 65 certain hospital and medical insurance benefits.Humana annual report on Form 10-K for 2025, filed February 19, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000009/hum-20251231.htm [J01] Form 10-K, Note 17, Medicare productsOur Medicare products, which accounted for approximately 83 % of our total premiums and services revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025Humana annual report on Form 10-K for 2025, filed February 19, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000009/hum-20251231.htm [J08] Form 10-K, Item 1, Individual Medicare Advantage Productsin exchange for contractual payments received from CMS, usually a fixed payment per member per monthHumana annual report on Form 10-K for 2025, filed February 19, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000009/hum-20251231.htm Humana had 6,453,700 individual Medicare Advantage members on June 30, 2026, up 23.4% in a year. It expects 2026 revenue of at least $160 billion. [I02] Form 10-Q, Insurance segment membershipIndividual Medicare Advantage 6,453,700 5,229,300 1,224,400 23.4 %Humana quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000050/hum-20260630.htm [G01] Detailed release, FY 2026 guidance tableConsolidated At least $160 billionHumana second quarter 2026 detailed earnings release, Exhibit 99.2 to Form 8-K, July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000045/hum-2026q2xex99x2detailedx.htm

Each year the federal Medicare agency rates these plans on a 5-star scale. It judges quality of care, member experience and service. A plan with 4 stars or more qualifies for bonus payments. [B05] Business Wire releaseCMS rates Medicare Advantage (MA) and Part D plans on a 5-star scale every year based on measurements of quality of care, member experience and customer service.Business Wire via FT.com · Read October 9, 2026Open source ↗https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/detail?dockey=600-202610090610BIZWIRE_USPRX____20261006_BW712100-1 [J02] Form 10-K, Item 1A, Risk FactorsThe achievement of Star Ratings of 4-star or higher qualifies Medicare Advantage plans for premium bonuses.Humana annual report on Form 10-K for 2025, filed February 19, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000009/hum-20251231.htm The pay comes later than the rating. The 2025 ratings came out in October 2024, and they set Humana's bonus pay for 2026. [C5] Form 8-K, Item 7.01which became available in CMS Plan Finder as of October 1, 2024Humana Form 8-K on preliminary 2025 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings, filed October 2, 2024Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907124000045/hum-20241002.htm [C3] Form 8-K, Item 7.01The decline in Stars performance for 2025 will impact Humana's quality bonus payments in 2026.Humana Form 8-K on preliminary 2025 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings, filed October 2, 2024Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907124000045/hum-20241002.htm

Those 2025 ratings hurt Humana badly. It said 25% of its members were in plans with 4 stars or more, down from 94% a year earlier. One contract, holding about 45% of its members, fell to 3.5 stars from 4.5. [C1] Form 8-K, Item 7.01has approximately 1.6 million, or 25%, of its members currently enrolled in plans rated 4 stars and above for 2025, a reduction from 94% in 2024Humana Form 8-K on preliminary 2025 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings, filed October 2, 2024Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907124000045/hum-20241002.htm [C2] Form 8-K, Item 7.01A significant driver of these results was contract H5216 decreasing to a 3.5-star rating from a 4.5-star rating in 2024. H5216 contains approximately 45% of Humana's MA membershipHumana Form 8-K on preliminary 2025 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings, filed October 2, 2024Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907124000045/hum-20241002.htm Humana said it narrowly missed the cutoffs on a small number of measures, and it sued. A court ruled against it on October 14, 2025. Its appeal is still pending. [C4] Form 8-K, Item 7.01its reduction in Star ratings was driven by narrowly missing higher industry cut points on a small number of measuresHumana Form 8-K on preliminary 2025 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings, filed October 2, 2024Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907124000045/hum-20241002.htm [I19] Form 10-Q, Note 13, Legal ProceedingsOn October 14, 2025, the Court issued a decision rejecting our challenge to the 2025 Star Ratings. On November 25, 2025, we notified the court of our appeal, which is now pending in the United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit.Humana quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000050/hum-20260630.htm

The 2026 ratings came out in October 2025. They put 20% of members in 4-star plans, with an average of 3.61 stars. [D01] Form 8-K, Item 7.01has approximately 1.2 million, or 20%, of its members currently enrolled in plans rated 4 stars and above for 2026, with an average Star rating of 3.61Humana Form 8-K on preliminary 2026 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings, filed October 2, 2025Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907125000048/hum-20251002.htm Humana then steered most new sales into better-rated plans. By February 2026 it expected about 45% of members in such plans in 2026. [E01] Prepared remarks, AEPMost new sales during the AEP were on contracts with 4+ Stars. As a result, we now anticipate approximately 45% of MA members in 4+ Star contracts in 2026Humana fourth quarter 2025 prepared management remarks, Exhibit 99.3 to Form 8-K, February 11, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000005/a4q2025humanaincpostedrema.htm

The lost bonuses cost a lot. Humana expects at least $9.00 a share of adjusted earnings in 2026, down from $17.14 in 2025. It ties the drop to the 2026 ratings hit, net of its fixes. [A13] Form 8-K, 2026 Earnings GuidanceHumana affirms its guidance of at least $9.00 in adjusted earnings per common share ("Adjusted EPS"), for the year ending December 31, 2026Humana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm [E07] Prepared remarks, executive summaryreporting Full Year (FY) Adjusted EPS of $17.14Humana fourth quarter 2025 prepared management remarks, Exhibit 99.3 to Form 8-K, February 11, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000005/a4q2025humanaincpostedrema.htm [F01] Earnings release, FY 2026 guidanceThe FY 2026 Adjusted EPS guidance anticipates a year-over-year decline as a result of the Star Ratings headwind for Bonus Year (BY) 2026, net of mitigation.Humana second quarter 2026 earnings release, Exhibit 99.1 to Form 8-K, July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000045/hum-2026q2xex99x1briefxjul.htm In February it said its individual Medicare Advantage plans would run slightly below breakeven in 2026 after that hit. In a normal ratings year, it assumed about 95% of members in plans of 4 stars or more, the level it had in 2025. [E03] Prepared remarks, individual MAAll in, after accounting for the BY 2026 Star Ratings headwind, our initial 2026 guidance assumes Individual MA margins are slightly below breakevenHumana fourth quarter 2025 prepared management remarks, Exhibit 99.3 to Form 8-K, February 11, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000005/a4q2025humanaincpostedrema.htm [E02] Prepared remarks, individual MAContinue to anticipate doubling individual MA margin in 2026 (normalizing for Stars - therefore assuming ~95% of members are in 4+ Star plans, consistent with 2025)Humana fourth quarter 2025 prepared management remarks, Exhibit 99.3 to Form 8-K, February 11, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000005/a4q2025humanaincpostedrema.htm

On October 8, CVS Health's Aetna said that more than 69% of its Medicare Advantage members are in 2027 plans rated 4 stars or more. Humana's annual report says many rivals have more members or more money. [W01] Aetna release, first paragraphmore than 69 percent of its Medicare Advantage (MA) members are in 2027 plans rated 4 stars or higherPR Newswire via FT.com · Read October 9, 2026Open source ↗https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/detail?dockey=600-202610081803PR_NEWS_USPRX____NE67583-1 [J07] Form 10-K, Item 1, CompetitionMany of our competitors have a larger membership base and/or greater financial resources than our health plans in the markets in which we compete.Humana annual report on Form 10-K for 2025, filed February 19, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000009/hum-20251231.htm On the morning of October 9, a Wall Street Journal headline said Humana's stock surged 15% after the news. A 15% rise on a company worth about $46.5 billion before the news would add roughly $7 billion of market value. That is more than our rough estimate, below, of $3.5 billion a year of star revenue above Humana's goal. [W02] Wall Street Journal headlineHumana Stock Prices Surge 15% After Medicare Advantage Star Ratings RiseThe Wall Street Journal · Read October 9, 2026Open source ↗https://www.wsj.com/health/healthcare/humana-says-95-of-medicare-advantage-members-in-4-star-plans-for-2027-b81a29de [P04] Tiingo IEX price, last minute of regular tradingHUM traded at $387.28 at 3:59 PM ET on October 8, 2026 (Tiingo IEX)IEX closing prices for HUM, September 30 to October 7, 2026, and its Tiingo IEX prices in the last minute of trading on October 8 and during trading on October 9, 2026Open source ↗https://iextrading.com/trading/market-data/ [I01] Form 10-Q, cover$0.16 2/3 par value 120,080,308 sharesHumana quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000050/hum-20260630.htm [V01] Chart, Humana lineHumana PMPM $160Chart of 2028 Stars revenue per member in Humana's October 9, 2026 8-KOpen exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009_g1.jpg [V02] Chart, Top Quartile lineTop Quartile PMPM (Median + 10%) $115Chart of 2028 Stars revenue per member in Humana's October 9, 2026 8-KOpen exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009_g1.jpg [I02] Form 10-Q, Insurance segment membershipIndividual Medicare Advantage 6,453,700 5,229,300 1,224,400 23.4 %Humana quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000050/hum-20260630.htm

What the new ratings say

The Medicare agency gave plans the final 2027 star data on October 8, 2026. Those ratings set bonuses paid in 2028. Humana says it beat its goal of a top-quarter result. [A01] Form 8-K, Item 7.01, 2027 Medicare Advantage Star RatingsBased on final 2027 Medicare Advantage (MA) Star Ratings data (Bonus Year 2028) provided by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) on October 8, 2026, Humana Inc. ("the Company") has exceeded its goal of Top Quartile results, which is defined as Stars revenue per member per month (PMPM) 10% above the peer group median.Humana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm The goal is star-related revenue per member each month that is 10% above the middle of a group of five big insurers, including CVS, Elevance and United. That revenue is the bonus a 4-star plan earns, plus the extra rebate a higher-rated plan keeps. [A01] Form 8-K, Item 7.01, 2027 Medicare Advantage Star RatingsBased on final 2027 Medicare Advantage (MA) Star Ratings data (Bonus Year 2028) provided by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) on October 8, 2026, Humana Inc. ("the Company") has exceeded its goal of Top Quartile results, which is defined as Stars revenue per member per month (PMPM) 10% above the peer group median.Humana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm [A02] Form 8-K, note 1Peer group includes Centene, CVS, Elevance, HCSC, and UnitedHumana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm [A03] Form 8-K, note 2Stars revenue PMPM is defined as the incremental revenue associated with obtaining a 3.5, 4, or 4.5 Star rating, inclusive of the incremental rebate retained and the quality bonus payment received for a 4 Star ratingHumana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm

Humana's own release gives the member count. It says 95% of its Medicare Advantage members are in plans rated 4 stars or more. And 42% are in plans rated 4.5 stars. [B01] Business Wire release, first paragraphhighlighted by 95% of its Medicare Advantage members being enrolled in plans rated 4.0 stars or above by theBusiness Wire via FT.com · Read October 9, 2026Open source ↗https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/detail?dockey=600-202610090610BIZWIRE_USPRX____20261006_BW712100-1 [B02] Business Wire release, first paragraphAdditionally, 42% of Humana Medicare Advantage members are enrolled in 4.5-star plans for 2027.Business Wire via FT.com · Read October 9, 2026Open source ↗https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/detail?dockey=600-202610090610BIZWIRE_USPRX____20261006_BW712100-1 It has six contracts at 4.5 stars and 12 at 4 stars. That is 11 more at 4 stars or above than a year earlier. Its drug-only plan earned 4.5 stars. [B03] Business Wire release, contract countsFor 2027, Humana has six MA contracts rated 4.5 stars and 12 MA contracts rated 4.0 stars. Compared to the prior year, Humana has 11 additional Medicare Advantage contracts rated 4.0 stars or above.Business Wire via FT.com · Read October 9, 2026Open source ↗https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/detail?dockey=600-202610090610BIZWIRE_USPRX____20261006_BW712100-1 [B04] Business Wire release, contract countsHumana’s PDP contract also earned a 4.5 star rating for 2027.Business Wire via FT.com · Read October 9, 2026Open source ↗https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/detail?dockey=600-202610090610BIZWIRE_USPRX____20261006_BW712100-1 The contract that fell to 3.5 stars in the 2025 ratings is back at 4 stars. [C2] Form 8-K, Item 7.01A significant driver of these results was contract H5216 decreasing to a 3.5-star rating from a 4.5-star rating in 2024. H5216 contains approximately 45% of Humana's MA membershipHumana Form 8-K on preliminary 2025 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings, filed October 2, 2024Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907124000045/hum-20241002.htm [B06] Business Wire release, 4.0-star contract listHumana 4.0-Star Rated MA Contracts - H5216Business Wire via FT.com · Read October 9, 2026Open source ↗https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/detail?dockey=600-202610090610BIZWIRE_USPRX____20261006_BW712100-1

The beat goes past what Humana built into its prices. It plans its products and benefits as if it will land near the top-quarter mark. It expects some of the gain above that mark to be one-time, and it will manage its costs that way. [A07] Form 8-K, Item 7.01the Company intends to manage its product and benefit structure assuming performance that approximates Top Quartile resultsHumana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm [A08] Form 8-K, Item 7.01the Company anticipates some of the outperformance in BY28 relative to Top Quartile will be one time in nature, and it will manage its expenses as suchHumana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm So it expects a 2028 benefit. It will spend that money on one-time investments and on returning cash to shareholders. It has not said how big the benefit is. [A09] Form 8-K, Item 7.01the Company expects a benefit for 2028 that will be utilized for one-time investments and return to shareholdersHumana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm [A10] Form 8-K, Item 7.01The Company will share more on the level of and expected use of the one-time benefit once it has more 2028 information, including insight into competitive dynamics and the rate and regulatory environment, along with a view of its expected contract mix and membership size and mix.Humana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm It says it will share the size and use once it knows more about 2028. It wants to see competition, payment rates, rules, contract mix and membership first. It will say by its call on fourth-quarter 2027 results. [A10] Form 8-K, Item 7.01The Company will share more on the level of and expected use of the one-time benefit once it has more 2028 information, including insight into competitive dynamics and the rate and regulatory environment, along with a view of its expected contract mix and membership size and mix.Humana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm [A11] Form 8-K, Item 7.01The Company intends to share this information prior to or when giving detailed 2028 financial guidance on the fourth quarter 2027 earnings call.Humana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm

Humana's chart puts its star revenue at about $160 a member a month. That compares with $115 for its top-quarter goal and a $105 industry median, with values rounded to the nearest $5. [V05] Chart, title2027 (BY 2028) Average Stars Revenue PMPMChart of 2028 Stars revenue per member in Humana's October 9, 2026 8-KOpen exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009_g1.jpg [V01] Chart, Humana lineHumana PMPM $160Chart of 2028 Stars revenue per member in Humana's October 9, 2026 8-KOpen exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009_g1.jpg [V02] Chart, Top Quartile lineTop Quartile PMPM (Median + 10%) $115Chart of 2028 Stars revenue per member in Humana's October 9, 2026 8-KOpen exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009_g1.jpg [V03] Chart, industry median lineIndustry Median PMPM $105Chart of 2028 Stars revenue per member in Humana's October 9, 2026 8-KOpen exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009_g1.jpg [V04] Chart, footnotePMPM values rounded to nearest $5.Chart of 2028 Stars revenue per member in Humana's October 9, 2026 8-KOpen exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009_g1.jpg The chart also shows five bars for rivals but does not say which rival is which. Humana gives no dollar total for the gain. [V06] Chart, bar labels$135 $130 $105 $65 $40Chart of 2028 Stars revenue per member in Humana's October 9, 2026 8-KOpen exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009_g1.jpg [A02] Form 8-K, note 1Peer group includes Centene, CVS, Elevance, HCSC, and UnitedHumana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm [A10] Form 8-K, Item 7.01The Company will share more on the level of and expected use of the one-time benefit once it has more 2028 information, including insight into competitive dynamics and the rate and regulatory environment, along with a view of its expected contract mix and membership size and mix.Humana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm The chart uses the same set inputs for every insurer. They include a $1,370 benchmark payment for a 3-star plan, a 1.15 risk score, which scales pay to how sick members are, and a $222 rebate, all on September 2026 membership. Humana says the real 2028 figures will be different. [A04] Form 8-K, note 3a consistent 3.0 benchmark of $1,370, a consistent risk score of 1.15, and consistent benefits equating to a rebate of $222 for all payersHumana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm [J15] Form 10-K, Item 1, risk adjustmentCMS uses a risk-adjustment model that adjusts premiums paid to Medicare Advantage, or MA, plans according to health status of covered members.Humana annual report on Form 10-K for 2025, filed February 19, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000009/hum-20251231.htm [A05] Form 8-K, note 3current membership and contract distribution per the CMS membership files dated September 2026 for all payersHumana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm [A06] Form 8-K, note 4actual 2028 Stars revenue PMPM for Humana and the peer group will be different than presented above as it will be dependent upon actual 2028 membership and contract mix, as well as actual 2028 risk scores, benchmark, and rebates for each respective payerHumana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm

Our rough math gives a sense of scale. A lead of about $45 a member a month over the goal, on 6,453,700 individual members, is roughly $3.5 billion a year of revenue. [V01] Chart, Humana lineHumana PMPM $160Chart of 2028 Stars revenue per member in Humana's October 9, 2026 8-KOpen exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009_g1.jpg [V02] Chart, Top Quartile lineTop Quartile PMPM (Median + 10%) $115Chart of 2028 Stars revenue per member in Humana's October 9, 2026 8-KOpen exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009_g1.jpg [I02] Form 10-Q, Insurance segment membershipIndividual Medicare Advantage 6,453,700 5,229,300 1,224,400 23.4 %Humana quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000050/hum-20260630.htm That is our estimate, not a company figure. It comes before costs, part of it is rebate money that goes to member benefits, and 2028 membership will differ. For scale, Humana's 2025 operating income was $2.70 billion. [A03] Form 8-K, note 2Stars revenue PMPM is defined as the incremental revenue associated with obtaining a 3.5, 4, or 4.5 Star rating, inclusive of the incremental rebate retained and the quality bonus payment received for a 4 Star ratingHumana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm [A06] Form 8-K, note 4actual 2028 Stars revenue PMPM for Humana and the peer group will be different than presented above as it will be dependent upon actual 2028 membership and contract mix, as well as actual 2028 risk scores, benchmark, and rebates for each respective payerHumana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm [J12] Form 10-K, MD&A, consolidated resultsIncome from operations 2,704 2,562 142 5.5 %Humana annual report on Form 10-K for 2025, filed February 19, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000009/hum-20251231.htm

Humana also kept its 2026 forecast of at least $9.00 a share in adjusted earnings. Under standard accounting, its last forecast, in September, was at least $6.52 a share. It now says that figure may change because of its overhaul program and other plans. [A13] Form 8-K, 2026 Earnings GuidanceHumana affirms its guidance of at least $9.00 in adjusted earnings per common share ("Adjusted EPS"), for the year ending December 31, 2026Humana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm [K01] Form 8-K, Item 7.01the Company intends to reaffirm its guidance of at least $6.52 in diluted earnings per common share ("EPS") or at least $9.00 in adjusted earnings per common share ("Adjusted EPS")Humana Form 8-K reaffirming 2026 guidance, filed September 1, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000052/hum-20260901.htm [A14] Form 8-K, 2026 Earnings GuidanceThe Company does expect potential changes to its FY 2026 GAAP EPS guidance due to its ongoing value creation and other strategic initiatives.Humana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm Adjusted earnings leave out some costs. They skip $1.47 a share of value changes on stakes tied to its clinic partners. They also skip $1.27 of costs for a long overhaul, $0.30 of amortization and $0.17 of write-downs, less $0.73 of tax effects. [K02] Form 8-K, reconciliation tableAmortization of identifiable intangibles 0.30 Put/call valuation adjustments associated with the company's non-consolidating minority interest investments (a) 1.47 Value creation initiatives (a) 1.27 Impairment charges (a) 0.17 Cumulative net tax impact (0.73)Humana Form 8-K reaffirming 2026 guidance, filed September 1, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000052/hum-20260901.htm [F02] Earnings release, footnotesThese non-cash amounts are the result of fair value measurements associated with the company's primary care strategic partnershipHumana second quarter 2026 earnings release, Exhibit 99.1 to Form 8-K, July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000045/hum-2026q2xex99x1briefxjul.htm [F03] Earnings release, footnotesThese charges relate to the company's multi-year transformation programHumana second quarter 2026 earnings release, Exhibit 99.1 to Form 8-K, July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000045/hum-2026q2xex99x1briefxjul.htm Humana expects an adjusted loss of about $1.00 a share in the third quarter. [H01] Prepared remarks, earnings seasonalityWe expect third quarter Adjusted EPS to be approximately ($1.00) or just over negative 10% of FY Adjusted EPSHumana second quarter 2026 prepared management remarks, Exhibit 99.3 to Form 8-K, July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000045/a2q2026humanaincpostedrema.htm

At $387.28, its price in the last minute of trading on October 8, Humana's 120,080,308 shares were worth about $46.5 billion. That price is about 43 times its 2026 adjusted earnings forecast. It is about 23 times its 2025 adjusted result. [P04] Tiingo IEX price, last minute of regular tradingHUM traded at $387.28 at 3:59 PM ET on October 8, 2026 (Tiingo IEX)IEX closing prices for HUM, September 30 to October 7, 2026, and its Tiingo IEX prices in the last minute of trading on October 8 and during trading on October 9, 2026Open source ↗https://iextrading.com/trading/market-data/ [I01] Form 10-Q, cover$0.16 2/3 par value 120,080,308 sharesHumana quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000050/hum-20260630.htm [A13] Form 8-K, 2026 Earnings GuidanceHumana affirms its guidance of at least $9.00 in adjusted earnings per common share ("Adjusted EPS"), for the year ending December 31, 2026Humana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm [E07] Prepared remarks, executive summaryreporting Full Year (FY) Adjusted EPS of $17.14Humana fourth quarter 2025 prepared management remarks, Exhibit 99.3 to Form 8-K, February 11, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000005/a4q2025humanaincpostedrema.htm The stock closed at $381.53 on September 30, $404.27 on October 6 and $396.31 on October 7. In the first half of 2026, Humana bought back its own shares at an average of $182.13. On October 9 it traded at $435.73 at 12:03 PM ET, during trading. [P02] IEX closing priceHUM closed at $381.53 on September 30, 2026 (IEX)IEX closing prices for HUM, September 30 to October 7, 2026, and its Tiingo IEX prices in the last minute of trading on October 8 and during trading on October 9, 2026Open source ↗https://iextrading.com/trading/market-data/ [P03] IEX closing priceHUM closed at $404.27 on October 6, 2026 (IEX)IEX closing prices for HUM, September 30 to October 7, 2026, and its Tiingo IEX prices in the last minute of trading on October 8 and during trading on October 9, 2026Open source ↗https://iextrading.com/trading/market-data/ [P01] IEX closing priceHUM closed at $396.31 on October 7, 2026 (IEX)IEX closing prices for HUM, September 30 to October 7, 2026, and its Tiingo IEX prices in the last minute of trading on October 8 and during trading on October 9, 2026Open source ↗https://iextrading.com/trading/market-data/ [I14] Form 10-Q, Note 10, Stock RepurchasesThese shares were repurchased at an average price of $ 182.13 under the February 2024 share repurchase authorization.Humana quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000050/hum-20260630.htm [P05] Tiingo IEX intraday priceHUM traded at $435.73 at 12:03 PM ET on October 9, 2026 (Tiingo IEX)IEX closing prices for HUM, September 30 to October 7, 2026, and its Tiingo IEX prices in the last minute of trading on October 8 and during trading on October 9, 2026Open source ↗https://iextrading.com/trading/market-data/

Humana carried about $14.2 billion of debt on June 30, 2026. That was $11.98 billion of long-term debt plus $2.27 billion due within a year. The near-term part held $1.32 billion of commercial paper, a kind of short-term loan. [I07] Form 10-Q, Note 12, DebtTotal long-term debt $ 11,979 $ 12,369Humana quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000050/hum-20260630.htm [I04] Form 10-Q, Note 12, DebtTotal senior notes 949 — Total short-term debt $ 2,268 $ —Humana quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000050/hum-20260630.htm [I03] Form 10-Q, Note 12, DebtCommercial paper $ 1,319 $ —Humana quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000050/hum-20260630.htm It also held $949 million of notes due in February and March 2027. Debt was 42.7% of total capital, above the company's long-term goal of about 40%. Its credit ratings were investment grade: BBB from S&P and Baa2 from Moody's. [I04] Form 10-Q, Note 12, DebtTotal senior notes 949 — Total short-term debt $ 2,268 $ —Humana quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000050/hum-20260630.htm [I05] Form 10-Q, Note 12, Debt$ 750 million, 1.350 % due February 3, 2027Humana quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000050/hum-20260630.htm [I06] Form 10-Q, Note 12, Debt$ 600 million, 3.950 % due March 15, 2027Humana quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000050/hum-20260630.htm [G03] Detailed release, highlights tableParent company cash and short-term investments (c) $1,590 $1,334 Debt-to-total capitalization 42.7 % 40.7 %Humana second quarter 2026 detailed earnings release, Exhibit 99.2 to Form 8-K, July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000045/hum-2026q2xex99x2detailedx.htm [E04] Prepared remarks, capitalWe continue to target a debt to capitalization ratio of approximately 40% over the long termHumana fourth quarter 2025 prepared management remarks, Exhibit 99.3 to Form 8-K, February 11, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000005/a4q2025humanaincpostedrema.htm [I11] Form 10-Q, MD&A, Liquidity RequirementsOur investment-grade credit rating at June 30, 2026 was BBB according to Standard & Poor's Rating Services, or S&P, and Baa2 according to Moody's Investors Services, Inc., or Moody's.Humana quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000050/hum-20260630.htm In 2025, operating income of $2.70 billion covered $631 million of interest about 4.3 times. The first half of 2026 looked stronger, at about 8 times, because Humana books most of its yearly profit early in the year. It expects a third-quarter loss, so full-year cover will be lower. [J12] Form 10-K, MD&A, consolidated resultsIncome from operations 2,704 2,562 142 5.5 %Humana annual report on Form 10-K for 2025, filed February 19, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000009/hum-20251231.htm [J13] Form 10-K, MD&A, consolidated resultsInterest expense 631 660 (29) (4.4) %Humana annual report on Form 10-K for 2025, filed February 19, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000009/hum-20251231.htm [I33] Form 10-Q, consolidated statements of incomeIncome from operations 1,360 1,098 3,114 3,112Humana quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000050/hum-20260630.htm [I18] Form 10-Q, MD&A, Interest Expenseincreased $73 million, or 23.0%, from $317 million in the 2025 period to $390 million in the 2026 periodHumana quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000050/hum-20260630.htm [E08] Prepared remarks, earnings seasonalitywe expect first quarter earnings to be approximately 110% to 115% of expected FY 2026 Adjusted earningsHumana fourth quarter 2025 prepared management remarks, Exhibit 99.3 to Form 8-K, February 11, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000005/a4q2025humanaincpostedrema.htm [H01] Prepared remarks, earnings seasonalityWe expect third quarter Adjusted EPS to be approximately ($1.00) or just over negative 10% of FY Adjusted EPSHumana second quarter 2026 prepared management remarks, Exhibit 99.3 to Form 8-K, July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000045/a2q2026humanaincpostedrema.htm

Cash was about $6.9 billion on June 30, 2026. The parent company itself held $1.59 billion of cash and short-term investments, but Humana says that was lifted by the timing of a $1.05 billion Medicaid payment that settled shortly after June 30. Its insurance units need state approval for larger payouts to the parent. [I08] Form 10-Q, MD&A, LiquidityCash and cash equivalents increased to approximately $6.9 billion at June 30, 2026 from $4.2 billion at December 31, 2025.Humana quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000050/hum-20260630.htm [G03] Detailed release, highlights tableParent company cash and short-term investments (c) $1,590 $1,334 Debt-to-total capitalization 42.7 % 40.7 %Humana second quarter 2026 detailed earnings release, Exhibit 99.2 to Form 8-K, July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000045/hum-2026q2xex99x2detailedx.htm [I30] Form 10-Q, MD&A, Liquidity RequirementsThis increase primarily reflects the timing of an approximately $1.05 billion Medicaid state-directed payment that settled shortly after June 30, 2026Humana quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000050/hum-20260630.htm [I13] Form 10-Q, MD&A, Regulatory RequirementsThe amount of dividends that may be paid to Humana Inc. by these subsidiaries, without prior approval by state regulatory authorities, or ordinary dividends, is limited based on the entity's level of statutory income and statutory capital and surplus.Humana quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000050/hum-20260630.htm At March 31, 2026, those units held about $15.5 billion of capital, against an $8.2 billion legal minimum. In May 2026 Humana also set up $1.5 billion of standby funding. It can draw on it by selling notes. [I12] Form 10-Q, MD&A, Regulatory RequirementsBased on the most recently filed statutory financial statements as of March 31, 2026, our state regulated subsidiaries had aggregate statutory capital and surplus of approximately $15.5 billion, which exceeded aggregate minimum regulatory requirements of $8.2 billionHumana quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000050/hum-20260630.htm [H03] Prepared remarks, capital deploymentthe establishment of $1.5 billion in contingent capital facilities utilizing pre-capitalized trust securities (P-Caps) in May 2026Humana second quarter 2026 prepared management remarks, Exhibit 99.3 to Form 8-K, July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000045/a2q2026humanaincpostedrema.htm [I24] Form 10-Q, Note 12, Pre-Capitalized Trust Security ArrangementsThe P-Caps provide us with on-demand capital and liquidity by permitting us to issue up to $ 750 million aggregate principal amount of our 6.062 % Senior Notes due 2036Humana quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000050/hum-20260630.htm Humana can also buy out the first two groups of clinics in its partnership with Welsh, Carson, Anderson & Stowe in 2026 for about $1.0 billion to $1.6 billion. Buying all the groups could cost $3.0 billion to $5.0 billion, and the partner can force sales to Humana from 2027 to 2034. That cash competes with any 2028 payout to holders. [J16] Form 10-K, Note 7, equity method investmentsOur primary care business previously entered into a strategic partnership with Welsh, Carson, Anderson & Stowe, or WCAS, to accelerate the expansion of our primary care model through the development of clinics.Humana annual report on Form 10-K for 2025, filed February 19, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000009/hum-20251231.htm [I25] Form 10-Q, Note 6, fair valuethe first two cohorts of clinics under our partnership with WCAS can be called by us in 2026 for approximately $ 1.0 billion to $ 1.6 billion.Humana quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000050/hum-20260630.htm [J14] Form 10-K, Note 7, equity method investmentsAll existing cohorts can be called by us from 2026 to 2033 or put to us by WCAS from 2027 to 2034 and could require $ 3.0 billion to $ 5.0 billion to purchase based on current projections.Humana annual report on Form 10-K for 2025, filed February 19, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000009/hum-20251231.htm

Cash flow is lumpy. In 2025 operating cash flow was $921 million, which Humana blamed mainly on timing. [J04] Form 10-K, cash flow statementNet cash provided by operating activities 921 2,966 3,981Humana annual report on Form 10-K for 2025, filed February 19, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000009/hum-20251231.htm [J10] Form 10-K, MD&A, Cash Flow from Operating ActivitiesThe decrease in our operating cash flows primarily reflected timing impacts, including the year-over-year increase in receivables due to the IRA and the unfavorable impact of working capital items.Humana annual report on Form 10-K for 2025, filed February 19, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000009/hum-20251231.htm After $546 million of spending on property and equipment, about $375 million was left. That was less than the $430 million paid in dividends. [J04] Form 10-K, cash flow statementNet cash provided by operating activities 921 2,966 3,981Humana annual report on Form 10-K for 2025, filed February 19, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000009/hum-20251231.htm [J05] Form 10-K, cash flow statementPurchases of property and equipment ( 546 ) ( 575 ) ( 1,004 )Humana annual report on Form 10-K for 2025, filed February 19, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000009/hum-20251231.htm [J06] Form 10-K, cash flow statementDividends paid ( 430 ) ( 431 ) ( 431 )Humana annual report on Form 10-K for 2025, filed February 19, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000009/hum-20251231.htm In the first half of 2026, operating cash flow was $3.22 billion. The timing of a $1.05 billion state Medicaid payment helped. [I09] Form 10-Q, MD&A, LiquidityNet cash provided by operating activities $ 3,220 $ 1,602Humana quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000050/hum-20260630.htm [I10] Form 10-Q, MD&A, Liquiditythe favorable timing impact of a $1.05 billion Medicaid state-directed payment that settled shortly after June 30, 2026Humana quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000050/hum-20260630.htm

Humana pays $0.885 a share each quarter, and it planned to hold the dividend flat in 2026. It planned only small buybacks this year, enough to offset stock pay. It had $2.7 billion of buyback room left, and that approval ends on February 15, 2027. [I17] Form 10-Q, Note 10, DividendsIn April 2026, the Board declared a cash dividend of $ 0.885 per share payable on July 31, 2026Humana quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000050/hum-20260630.htm [E05] Prepared remarks, capitalIntend to maintain our dividend flat year over year on a per share basis throughout 2026Humana fourth quarter 2025 prepared management remarks, Exhibit 99.3 to Form 8-K, February 11, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000005/a4q2025humanaincpostedrema.htm [E06] Prepared remarks, capitalour 2026 outlook contemplates minimal share repurchase activity to offset dilution from stock-based compensationHumana fourth quarter 2025 prepared management remarks, Exhibit 99.3 to Form 8-K, February 11, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000005/a4q2025humanaincpostedrema.htm [I15] Form 10-Q, Note 10, Stock RepurchasesOur remaining repurchase authorization was $ 2.7 billion as of July 28, 2026.Humana quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000050/hum-20260630.htm [I16] Form 10-Q, Note 10, Stock Repurchasesexpiring as of February 15, 2027Humana quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000050/hum-20260630.htm Its $1.0 billion of junior notes let it put off interest for up to 10 years. While it does, with few exceptions, it may not pay dividends or buy back stock. It is not putting off any interest now. [I21] Form 10-Q, Note 12, Junior Subordinated NotesIn March 2026, we issued $ 1.0 billion in aggregate principal amount of 6.625 % fixed-to-fixed rate junior subordinated notesHumana quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000050/hum-20260630.htm [I23] Form 10-Q, Note 12, Junior Subordinated Notesto defer payment of all or part of the current and accrued interest on the Subordinated Notes, on one or more occasions, for a period of up to 10 consecutive yearsHumana quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000050/hum-20260630.htm [I22] Form 10-Q, Note 12, Junior Subordinated NotesWe may not, subject to certain limited exceptions, declare or pay any dividends or other distributions on, or redeem, repurchase or otherwise acquire any of our capital stock during the deferral period. We are currently not deferring payment.Humana quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000050/hum-20260630.htm Counting stock awards, Humana expects about 121 million diluted shares for 2026. [G04] Detailed release, FY 2026 guidance tableWeighted Avg. Share Count for Diluted EPS approximately 121 millionHumana second quarter 2026 detailed earnings release, Exhibit 99.2 to Form 8-K, July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000045/hum-2026q2xex99x2detailedx.htm

The case for the stock starts with the ratings. They are final. They bring Humana back to the 95% level its normal-year plan assumed. [A01] Form 8-K, Item 7.01, 2027 Medicare Advantage Star RatingsBased on final 2027 Medicare Advantage (MA) Star Ratings data (Bonus Year 2028) provided by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) on October 8, 2026, Humana Inc. ("the Company") has exceeded its goal of Top Quartile results, which is defined as Stars revenue per member per month (PMPM) 10% above the peer group median.Humana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm [B01] Business Wire release, first paragraphhighlighted by 95% of its Medicare Advantage members being enrolled in plans rated 4.0 stars or above by theBusiness Wire via FT.com · Read October 9, 2026Open source ↗https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/detail?dockey=600-202610090610BIZWIRE_USPRX____20261006_BW712100-1 [E02] Prepared remarks, individual MAContinue to anticipate doubling individual MA margin in 2026 (normalizing for Stars - therefore assuming ~95% of members are in 4+ Star plans, consistent with 2025)Humana fourth quarter 2025 prepared management remarks, Exhibit 99.3 to Form 8-K, February 11, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000005/a4q2025humanaincpostedrema.htm Humana prices its plans for a top-quarter result, and it expects the one-time part of the beat to give it extra money in 2028. Its individual Medicare Advantage membership grew 23.4% in a year, so the ratings now cover a much bigger base. And 95% compares well with the more than 69% that Aetna reported. [A07] Form 8-K, Item 7.01the Company intends to manage its product and benefit structure assuming performance that approximates Top Quartile resultsHumana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm [A09] Form 8-K, Item 7.01the Company expects a benefit for 2028 that will be utilized for one-time investments and return to shareholdersHumana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm [I02] Form 10-Q, Insurance segment membershipIndividual Medicare Advantage 6,453,700 5,229,300 1,224,400 23.4 %Humana quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000050/hum-20260630.htm [B01] Business Wire release, first paragraphhighlighted by 95% of its Medicare Advantage members being enrolled in plans rated 4.0 stars or above by theBusiness Wire via FT.com · Read October 9, 2026Open source ↗https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/detail?dockey=600-202610090610BIZWIRE_USPRX____20261006_BW712100-1 [W01] Aetna release, first paragraphmore than 69 percent of its Medicare Advantage (MA) members are in 2027 plans rated 4 stars or higherPR Newswire via FT.com · Read October 9, 2026Open source ↗https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/detail?dockey=600-202610081803PR_NEWS_USPRX____NE67583-1

The case against comes in order of weight. First, the stock price already assumes a strong recovery. Second, the payoff is only partly sized. [A10] Form 8-K, Item 7.01The Company will share more on the level of and expected use of the one-time benefit once it has more 2028 information, including insight into competitive dynamics and the rate and regulatory environment, along with a view of its expected contract mix and membership size and mix.Humana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm Humana's chart shows a lead of about $45 a member a month over its goal, but it gives no total. It says part is one-time, and it will spend some on one-time investments, not only on holders. [V01] Chart, Humana lineHumana PMPM $160Chart of 2028 Stars revenue per member in Humana's October 9, 2026 8-KOpen exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009_g1.jpg [V02] Chart, Top Quartile lineTop Quartile PMPM (Median + 10%) $115Chart of 2028 Stars revenue per member in Humana's October 9, 2026 8-KOpen exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009_g1.jpg [A10] Form 8-K, Item 7.01The Company will share more on the level of and expected use of the one-time benefit once it has more 2028 information, including insight into competitive dynamics and the rate and regulatory environment, along with a view of its expected contract mix and membership size and mix.Humana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm [A08] Form 8-K, Item 7.01the Company anticipates some of the outperformance in BY28 relative to Top Quartile will be one time in nature, and it will manage its expenses as suchHumana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm [A09] Form 8-K, Item 7.01the Company expects a benefit for 2028 that will be utilized for one-time investments and return to shareholdersHumana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm Third, the money arrives in 2028, and the third quarter of 2026 should show an adjusted loss. Fourth, ratings can fall again. The cutoffs are set only after each measuring year, and Humana says it lost its 2025 stars by narrowly missing them. [A01] Form 8-K, Item 7.01, 2027 Medicare Advantage Star RatingsBased on final 2027 Medicare Advantage (MA) Star Ratings data (Bonus Year 2028) provided by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) on October 8, 2026, Humana Inc. ("the Company") has exceeded its goal of Top Quartile results, which is defined as Stars revenue per member per month (PMPM) 10% above the peer group median.Humana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm [H01] Prepared remarks, earnings seasonalityWe expect third quarter Adjusted EPS to be approximately ($1.00) or just over negative 10% of FY Adjusted EPSHumana second quarter 2026 prepared management remarks, Exhibit 99.3 to Form 8-K, July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000045/a2q2026humanaincpostedrema.htm [J03] Form 10-K, Item 1A, Risk FactorsUncertainties with respect to both ongoing changes to the Star Ratings system and CMS cut-points for establishing a plan's performance with respect to star rating measures, which are not determined until after the relevant measurement periodHumana annual report on Form 10-K for 2025, filed February 19, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000009/hum-20251231.htm [C4] Form 8-K, Item 7.01its reduction in Star ratings was driven by narrowly missing higher industry cut points on a small number of measuresHumana Form 8-K on preliminary 2025 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings, filed October 2, 2024Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907124000045/hum-20241002.htm Fifth, Humana leans on one payer: 83% of its 2025 premiums and services revenue came from federal government contracts. Its debt also sits above its own goal. [J11] Form 10-K, Item 1, BusinessDuring 2025, 83% of our total premiums and services revenue were derived from contracts with the federal governmentHumana annual report on Form 10-K for 2025, filed February 19, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000009/hum-20251231.htm [G03] Detailed release, highlights tableParent company cash and short-term investments (c) $1,590 $1,334 Debt-to-total capitalization 42.7 % 40.7 %Humana second quarter 2026 detailed earnings release, Exhibit 99.2 to Form 8-K, July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000045/hum-2026q2xex99x2detailedx.htm [E04] Prepared remarks, capitalWe continue to target a debt to capitalization ratio of approximately 40% over the long termHumana fourth quarter 2025 prepared management remarks, Exhibit 99.3 to Form 8-K, February 11, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000005/a4q2025humanaincpostedrema.htm Sixth, a 2023 Medicare rule changed how the agency recovers past payments after audits of medical records. A court threw out the rule on September 25, 2025, but the government's appeal is pending, and Humana says the rule could hurt its results. A shareholder lawsuit over Humana's past statements on star ratings and costs is also pending. [I29] Form 10-Q, Note 13, Legal ProceedingsOn January 30, 2023, CMS published a final rule related to the RADV audit methodology (Final RADV Rule).Humana quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000050/hum-20260630.htm [I32] Form 10-Q, Note 13, Legal Proceedingsapplying its revised methodology, including extrapolated recoveries without application of a FFS AdjusterHumana quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000050/hum-20260630.htm [I28] Form 10-Q, Note 13, Legal ProceedingsRADV audits review medical records in an attempt to validate provider medical record documentation and coding practices that influence the calculation of health status-related premium payments to MA plans.Humana quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000050/hum-20260630.htm [I26] Form 10-Q, Note 13, Legal ProceedingsOn September 25, 2025, the Court granted our motion for summary judgment and vacated the Final RADV RuleHumana quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000050/hum-20260630.htm [I27] Form 10-Q, Note 13, Legal ProceedingsOn November 21, 2025, the government notified the court of its appeal of that decision, which is now pending at the United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth CircuitHumana quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000050/hum-20260630.htm [I31] Form 10-Q, Note 13, Legal Proceedingscould each have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, financial position, or cash flowsHumana quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000050/hum-20260630.htm [I20] Form 10-Q, Note 13, Legal Proceedingsalleges that between July 2022 and October 2024, Humana made false or misleading statements in its periodic SEC filings and statements to the financial markets about our financial performance and the medical costs, Star Ratings and certain distribution relationshipsHumana quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000050/hum-20260630.htm

Humana's own forward case is a goal, not a promise. It says it is well placed to unlock the earnings it laid out at its 2025 Investor Day by 2028. It credits more members and the return to top-quarter ratings. [A15] Form 8-K, Item 7.01The Company believes it is well positioned to deliver on its commitment of unlocking the earnings potential of the business by 2028 as laid out at its 2025 Investor Day, supported by its expanded membership base, return to Top Quartile Stars resultsHumana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm It also aims to bring its individual Medicare Advantage plans back to a pre-tax margin of at least 3% in 2028. [H02] Prepared remarks, executive summaryExpect that our approach to 2027 individual MA bids will drive meaningful progress against our commitment of returning to a sustainable pre-tax margin of at least 3% in 2028Humana second quarter 2026 prepared management remarks, Exhibit 99.3 to Form 8-K, July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000045/a2q2026humanaincpostedrema.htm [C6] Form 8-K, Item 7.01the Company remains focused on achieving its individual MA margin target of 'at least 3 percent'Humana Form 8-K on preliminary 2025 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings, filed October 2, 2024Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907124000045/hum-20241002.htm

Several dates will test the story. Sign-up for 2027 plans runs from October 15 to December 7, 2026. Last year Humana reported third-quarter results on November 5, 2025. [B07] Business Wire release, enrollmentThe Medicare Advantage and Prescription Drug Plan Annual Election Period (AEP) begins Oct. 15 and continues through Dec. 7, 2026Business Wire via FT.com · Read October 9, 2026Open source ↗https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/detail?dockey=600-202610090610BIZWIRE_USPRX____20261006_BW712100-1 [W03] Business Wire releasewill release its financial results for the third quarter 2025 (3Q25), as well as prepared management remarks (in PDF format), at 6:00 a.m. Eastern time on November 5, 2025Business Wire · Read October 9, 2026Open source ↗https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20251010273870/en/Humana-Inc.-to-Release-Third-Quarter-2025-Results-on-November-5-2025 The investor update comes on December 10, 2026. Notes come due in February and March 2027, and the buyback approval ends on February 15, 2027. The size of the one-time gain should come by the call on fourth-quarter 2027 results. [A12] Form 8-K, Item 7.01the Company will hold a virtual investor update on December 10th, 2026, to provide a mark to market against the framework laid out at its 2025 Investor DayHumana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm [I05] Form 10-Q, Note 12, Debt$ 750 million, 1.350 % due February 3, 2027Humana quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000050/hum-20260630.htm [I06] Form 10-Q, Note 12, Debt$ 600 million, 3.950 % due March 15, 2027Humana quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000050/hum-20260630.htm [I16] Form 10-Q, Note 10, Stock Repurchasesexpiring as of February 15, 2027Humana quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000050/hum-20260630.htm [A11] Form 8-K, Item 7.01The Company intends to share this information prior to or when giving detailed 2028 financial guidance on the fourth quarter 2027 earnings call.Humana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm

What would prove the hopeful view wrong is a small number. The December 10, 2026 update or the later 2028 forecast could show only a modest one-time gain. [A12] Form 8-K, Item 7.01the Company will hold a virtual investor update on December 10th, 2026, to provide a mark to market against the framework laid out at its 2025 Investor DayHumana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm [A11] Form 8-K, Item 7.01The Company intends to share this information prior to or when giving detailed 2028 financial guidance on the fourth quarter 2027 earnings call.Humana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm Or most of it could go to investments. Then the jump in the stock would look too big. [A09] Form 8-K, Item 7.01the Company expects a benefit for 2028 that will be utilized for one-time investments and return to shareholdersHumana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm The line in our call sits below the $387.28 price in the last minute of trading on October 8, before Humana's news. So a NO needs the stock to give back all of its gain since then, most likely after a weak December 10, 2026 update. [P04] Tiingo IEX price, last minute of regular tradingHUM traded at $387.28 at 3:59 PM ET on October 8, 2026 (Tiingo IEX)IEX closing prices for HUM, September 30 to October 7, 2026, and its Tiingo IEX prices in the last minute of trading on October 8 and during trading on October 9, 2026Open source ↗https://iextrading.com/trading/market-data/ [A12] Form 8-K, Item 7.01the Company will hold a virtual investor update on December 10th, 2026, to provide a mark to market against the framework laid out at its 2025 Investor DayHumana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm

What is still unknown

How many dollars the 2027 ratings add in 2028, how much of it is rebate rather than bonus, and how much Humana counts as one-time. It says it will share the size once it knows more about 2028. [A03] Form 8-K, note 2Stars revenue PMPM is defined as the incremental revenue associated with obtaining a 3.5, 4, or 4.5 Star rating, inclusive of the incremental rebate retained and the quality bonus payment received for a 4 Star ratingHumana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm [A10] Form 8-K, Item 7.01The Company will share more on the level of and expected use of the one-time benefit once it has more 2028 information, including insight into competitive dynamics and the rate and regulatory environment, along with a view of its expected contract mix and membership size and mix.Humana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm

How the one-time benefit will be split between one-time investments and returns to shareholders. It is also not known whether returns mean buybacks or dividends. [A09] Form 8-K, Item 7.01the Company expects a benefit for 2028 that will be utilized for one-time investments and return to shareholdersHumana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm

Why Humana expects part of the gain above its goal to be one-time. [A08] Form 8-K, Item 7.01the Company anticipates some of the outperformance in BY28 relative to Top Quartile will be one time in nature, and it will manage its expenses as suchHumana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm

Which rival is which on Humana's chart. The filing names the peer group, including CVS, Elevance and United, and its chart prints five bar values, but it does not label the bars. [A02] Form 8-K, note 1Peer group includes Centene, CVS, Elevance, HCSC, and UnitedHumana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm [V06] Chart, bar labels$135 $130 $105 $65 $40Chart of 2028 Stars revenue per member in Humana's October 9, 2026 8-KOpen exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009_g1.jpg

How Humana will spread 2027 sign-ups across its six 4.5-star and 12 4-star contracts. It says its 2028 picture depends on contract mix and membership. [B03] Business Wire release, contract countsFor 2027, Humana has six MA contracts rated 4.5 stars and 12 MA contracts rated 4.0 stars. Compared to the prior year, Humana has 11 additional Medicare Advantage contracts rated 4.0 stars or above.Business Wire via FT.com · Read October 9, 2026Open source ↗https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/detail?dockey=600-202610090610BIZWIRE_USPRX____20261006_BW712100-1 [A10] Form 8-K, Item 7.01The Company will share more on the level of and expected use of the one-time benefit once it has more 2028 information, including insight into competitive dynamics and the rate and regulatory environment, along with a view of its expected contract mix and membership size and mix.Humana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm

How much Humana now expects to earn in 2028. Its filings point to the plan from its 2025 Investor Day but do not restate its figures, and the December 10, 2026 update is meant to check progress against it. [A15] Form 8-K, Item 7.01The Company believes it is well positioned to deliver on its commitment of unlocking the earnings potential of the business by 2028 as laid out at its 2025 Investor Day, supported by its expanded membership base, return to Top Quartile Stars resultsHumana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm [A12] Form 8-K, Item 7.01the Company will hold a virtual investor update on December 10th, 2026, to provide a mark to market against the framework laid out at its 2025 Investor DayHumana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm

What Humana will now forecast for 2026 earnings under standard accounting. It says that forecast may change. [A14] Form 8-K, 2026 Earnings GuidanceThe Company does expect potential changes to its FY 2026 GAAP EPS guidance due to its ongoing value creation and other strategic initiatives.Humana Form 8-K on final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and 2026 guidance, filed October 9, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000057/hum-20261009.htm

When the appeals court will rule on Humana's challenge to its 2025 ratings and on the government's appeal of the audit rule decision. [I19] Form 10-Q, Note 13, Legal ProceedingsOn October 14, 2025, the Court issued a decision rejecting our challenge to the 2025 Star Ratings. On November 25, 2025, we notified the court of our appeal, which is now pending in the United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit.Humana quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000050/hum-20260630.htm [I27] Form 10-Q, Note 13, Legal ProceedingsOn November 21, 2025, the government notified the court of its appeal of that decision, which is now pending at the United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth CircuitHumana quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 29, 2026Open exact filing on SEC EDGAR ↗https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000050/hum-20260630.htm

The question that remains

Will HUM stock close above $385 on Dec 11?

Our call: We say YES

We find out by December 11, 2026.

Sources

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