{ "calls": [ { "id": "2026-10-23-1819133-787927a73e", "reportId": "tngx-2026-10-23", "ticker": "TNGX", "question": "Will TNGX close above $30, its June 2026 offering price, on November 6, 2026?", "prediction": "no", "opened": "2026-10-23", "resolveBy": "2026-11-06", "resolveWhen": "at the close on November 6, 2026; Tango has not yet announced the date of its third-quarter 2026 report", "reference": "At $23.97 the stock needs a gain of about 25% to close above $30. The third-quarter report, whose date is not yet set, should show the cost of the cut and any stock sold under the $400 million program, but no new trial data are due until January 2027. The pancreatic Phase 3 cannot start until the first half of 2027, and Tango has not yet secured daraxonrasib supply for it. Up to $400 million of new stock can be sold into any rally, and the stock never closed above $28 in our price file from mid-September. A supply deal for the Phase 3 would prove this call wrong.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "Tango Therapeutics", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/TNGX/2026/q4", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/TNGX/2026/q4", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-23-1065696-1c53b17acc", "reportId": "lkq-2026-10-23", "ticker": "LKQ", "question": "Will LKQ stock close above $20 on October 30, 2026?", "prediction": "no", "opened": "2026-10-23", "resolveBy": "2026-10-30", "resolveWhen": "at the close on October 30, 2026, the first close after LKQ's full third-quarter results and call on October 29, 2026", "reference": "LKQ closed at $21.37 on October 21 and traded at $17.85 at 10:36 a.m. on October 23, 2026, so a close above $20 needs a gain of about 12% within a week. The October 29 report will confirm figures already pre-announced, the full-year forecast is withdrawn, first-half free cash flow was negative and there is no permanent chief until December 15, so the report itself is unlikely to give a reason for a sharp rebound. The main risk to this call is the sale review, which is active with multiple parties: an announced offer could lift the stock above $20 at once. We put the chance of a yes at about one in four.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "LKQ", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/LKQ/2026/q3", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/LKQ/2026/q3", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-22-1384905-bef8002f9e", "reportId": "rng-2026-10-22", "ticker": "RNG", "question": "Will RNG stock close above $82 on November 6, 2026?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-22", "resolveBy": "2026-11-06", "resolveWhen": "at the close on November 6, 2026, the dividend record date", "reference": "RNG closed at $82.415 on October 21, the last close before the report, and traded at $89.78 after it. The call asks whether the post-report gain holds through the November 6 dividend record date, by when the third-quarter 10-Q, not yet filed, may also show which debt remains. Yes, because the quarter beat July guidance on subscriptions and adjusted earnings, free cash flow guidance has risen at every report this year to $620-630 million, near-term cash taxes should not change, and debt is about $1 billion with no maturities until 2030, leaving a free cash flow yield near 8% at $89.78. Risks: growth near 6%, stock pay near 9% of revenue, a run-up of about 14% before the report, a weak market on October 22, and no 2027 guidance. A reversal of the after-hours gain would break it. Moderate confidence.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "RingCentral", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/RNG/2026/q3", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/RNG/2026/q3", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-22-1116942-367ebc601f", "reportId": "ttmi-2026-10-22", "ticker": "TTMI", "question": "Will TTMI stock close above $60 on November 2, 2026?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-22", "resolveBy": "2026-11-02", "resolveWhen": "at the regular-session close on November 2, 2026, from the IEX close for TTMI", "reference": "TTMI was $73.89 at the close on October 22, 2026, after a 27.6% fall from $102.05, on a day when the chip fund SMH fell about 6%. TTM's third-quarter 10-Q, its next filing on the quarter, will confirm or revise the preliminary figures in the release. A close below $60 would mean another fall of about a fifth in under two weeks and a price near 7.4 times the low end of TTM's own 2027 adjusted earnings forecast of $8.10 to $8.90 a share. We think that takes a fresh shock: a 10-Q that differs from the release, a cut to the fourth-quarter guide of $1.42 billion to $1.44 billion, or a deeper AI sell-off. TTM beat its own guidance in the second and third quarters, orders ran at 2.13 times sales, and the chief executive and a director bought shares at $111.77 and $104.90 in August. Against the call: the stock fell from $133.25 on October 5 to $73.89 in about two and a half weeks, it trades with volatile AI stocks, net leverage is 2.8 times after Epiq, above the 2.50 times bank trigger, Epiq lowers 2027 adjusted earnings per share, and more debt-funded buying is planned. Confidence: about three in four.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "TTM Technologies", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/TTMI/2026/q3", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/TTMI/2026/q3", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-22-1003078-bec084d573", "reportId": "msm-2026-10-22", "ticker": "MSM", "question": "Will MSM stock close above $110 on January 7, 2027, the day after MSC reports fiscal first-quarter results?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-22", "resolveBy": "2027-01-07", "resolveWhen": "at the close on January 7, 2027, the first trading day after MSC's January 6, 2027 first-quarter report", "reference": "MSM was $114.30 at 1:58 p.m. on October 22, 2026, after a 13.8% drop on a quarter that beat the top of both guided ranges; the October 22 close was not yet known when we wrote this. The company guides first-quarter daily sales up 9.5% to 10.5% and an adjusted margin of 9.5% to 10.1%, above last year's 8.4%, and says sales are growing at a low double-digit rate so far, with October expected near 11.5%. It beat the top of its outlook in each of the last two quarters, and net debt is about 1 times EBITDA. If it lands inside the guide, a further slide below $110, about 4% under the post-drop price, would need a new problem. The risk to YES is a margin miss driven by inflation and slipping price/cost.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "MSC Industrial", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/MSM/2026/q4", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/MSM/2026/q4", "readerPicks": { "agree": 1, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-22-910521-eadfa6b114", "reportId": "deck-2026-10-22", "ticker": "DECK", "question": "Will Deckers report diluted EPS above $3.52 for the quarter ending December 31, 2026?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-22", "resolveBy": "2027-02-10", "resolveWhen": "when Deckers files its 10-Q for the quarter ending December 31, 2026", "reference": "Management guides December-quarter diluted EPS of $3.52 to $3.60, including about $0.24 of tariff refunds already collected through October 8, 2026, so about $3.28 has to come from the business. In the September quarter, earnings excluding refunds were $2.03, well above the top of the company's own range, and buybacks keep shrinking the share count. Management already builds in about 150 basis points of gross-margin pressure from freight and discounting against about 210 basis points of refund help. We say yes with moderate confidence because the bar is the low end of a guide set the same day and the refund part is already in hand. We would be wrong if UGG's holiday is soft (management already assumes fewer reorders), more delayed European orders are canceled, or American discounting deepens beyond what the guide assumes.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "Deckers Brands", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/DECK/2027/q2", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/DECK/2027/q2", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-22-1935979-173613f524", "reportId": "bhvn-2026-10-22", "ticker": "BHVN", "question": "Will BHVN stock close above $10 on March 2, 2027?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-22", "resolveBy": "2027-03-02", "resolveWhen": "at the close on March 2, 2027, the first close after the March 1, 2027 deadline for Biohaven's audited 2026 accounts, when the notes' going-concern test bites and the FDA's first-quarter decision window is under way. The $10 line sits below the $11.81 pre-news close and the $10.795 October 16 low, so a panel setback that only erased today's gain would leave room; but the shares fell more than 40% on the last rejection, and a second rejection letter inside the first-quarter goal window, a failed SK closing or a going-concern warning could each take the stock below it before March 2", "reference": "Biohaven's audited 2026 accounts are due by March 1, 2027 (C15), and a going-concern warning in them would breach the $250 million secured notes (C14, C70); the FDA's decision goal also falls in the first quarter of 2027 (C03), and its advisory panel should come before then (C04). The $10 line sits below the $11.81 pre-news close (P01) and the $10.795 October 16 low (P07), so a panel setback that only erased today's gain would leave room. The company also has cash beyond troriluzole: $267.9 million of cash and investments at June 30 (C10, C11), a non-refundable $80 million upfront from Ono (C30) and $350 million due from SK at closing (C35), though that closing needs antitrust clearance (C37). The risks are real: the goal date does not assure approval (C06), the FDA may issue another rejection letter (C07), and the last rejection cut the shares by more than 40%, as the background notes. A no most likely needs a second rejection inside the goal window, or a bad panel outcome plus a failed SK closing or a going-concern warning.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "Biohaven", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/BHVN/2026/q4", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/BHVN/2026/q4", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-21-1987240-523cce99e2", "reportId": "shmd-2026-10-21", "ticker": "SHMD", "question": "Will SHMD stock close above $5 on May 3, 2027?", "prediction": "no", "opened": "2026-10-21", "resolveBy": "2027-05-03", "resolveWhen": "at the close on May 3, 2027, the first trading day after the April 30, 2027 deadline for SCHMID's 2026 annual report", "reference": "SHMD was $3.125 at 2:51 p.m. on October 21, 2026, so a close above $5 needs a 60% rise. Even if 2026 revenue tops €100 million, the remaining $5 million of 2028 notes and then the $20 million of 2029 notes convert at 95% to 97% of the trading price, adding supply on any rally, and the stock already failed to hold $4.88 to $4.91 in August and September. A yes would need fourth-quarter revenue well above €30 million and a margin inside the 6 to 9% goal, confirmed in the annual report.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "SCHMID Group", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/SHMD/2026/q3", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/SHMD/2026/q3", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-21-1811414-d866b2d593", "reportId": "qs-2026-10-21", "ticker": "QS", "question": "Will QS stock close above $5 on November 12, 2026?", "prediction": "no", "opened": "2026-10-21", "resolveBy": "2026-11-12", "resolveWhen": "at the close on November 12, 2026, the first trading day after QuantumScape's November 11 technology update in Kyoto", "reference": "QS was $4.22 after hours on October 21, so a close above $5 needs about an 18% gain; it last closed at $5 or more on September 22. The November 11 Kyoto update adds technology detail but no cash. The new line has no stated cost, the PowerCo milestones are not reset, and the company warns of dilutive raises. We expect the stock to stay below $5.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "QuantumScape", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/QS/2026/q3", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/QS/2026/q3", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-21-51143-05216109c8", "reportId": "ibm-2026-10-21", "ticker": "IBM", "question": "Will IBM stock close above $242 on November 11, 2026?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-21", "resolveBy": "2026-11-11", "resolveWhen": "at the close on November 11, 2026, the first trading day after IBM's November 10 dividend record date", "reference": "IBM closed at $242 on October 20, the last close before results, and traded at $260.62 after hours on October 21, up 7.7%, while the S&P 500 fund rose 0.5% by its regular close. A YES needs the stock to keep at least part of that gain through the first close after the November 10 dividend record date. For YES: revenue growth recovered to 5% from 1%, Q3 free cash flow rose $0.7 billion, and IBM raised its full-year cash goal. Against: IBM Z still fell 20%, reported profit growth leaned on a lower tax rate, and the stock fell from $248.67 to $219.82 in the second half of September, so swings of that size happen. A NO would mean the market gave back the whole post-results gain within three weeks. Moderate confidence.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "IBM", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/IBM/2026/q3", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/IBM/2026/q3", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-21-1023128-fb52347412", "reportId": "lad-2026-10-21", "ticker": "LAD", "question": "Will LAD stock close above $300 on November 23, 2026?", "prediction": "no", "opened": "2026-10-21", "resolveBy": "2026-11-23", "resolveWhen": "at the close on November 23, 2026, the first trading day after the $0.75 dividend is paid on November 20", "reference": "LAD closed at $269.235 on October 21, after falling 10.1% from $299.61 on the results. A close above $300 by November 23 needs a gain of about 11%. We say no. Adjusted net income fell 5% in the quarter and about 9% through September, same-store gross profit shrank 1.6%, and net debt is 3.07 times adjusted earnings against 2.63 a year ago, though down from 3.17 at June 30. Buybacks, dividends and acquisitions together ran about $196 million ahead of underlying free cash flow through September. Rivals AutoNation and Asbury also fell on October 21, so the pressure is on the whole group, not just Lithia. On the other side, $535 million of buyback room remains and the stock trades near 7.8 times trailing adjusted earnings, so a rebound is possible. That is why the level is the pre-report price, not today's.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "Lithia & Driveway", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/LAD/2026/q3", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/LAD/2026/q3", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-21-107687-4e45916296", "reportId": "wgo-2026-10-21", "ticker": "WGO", "question": "Will WGO stock close above $22.63, its October 19 close, on October 29, 2026, after its annual report?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-21", "resolveBy": "2026-10-29", "resolveWhen": "at the IEX close on October 29, 2026", "reference": "By mid-morning on October 21 the stock was 6.3% above its $23.185 late price on October 20 and 8.9% above its October 19 close, against 1.7% for Thor, on a fiscal 2027 range whose midpoint sits above fiscal 2026, with cash at $181.4 million, net leverage at 2.2 times and lean dealer stock. The annual report, due about October 22, should confirm the Chris-Craft test, and the year-end balance sheet already shows no charge, with intangibles down only about the year's amortization. So we expect the stock to hold above $22.63 through the week, with moderate confidence.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "Winnebago Industries", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/WGO/2026/q4", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/WGO/2026/q4", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 1 } }, { "id": "2026-10-20-33185-3f87b4ed35", "reportId": "efx-2026-10-20", "ticker": "EFX", "question": "Will Equifax (EFX) stock close above $158.52, its last close before the third-quarter results, on December 31, 2026?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-20", "resolveBy": "2026-12-31", "resolveWhen": "at the close of regular trading on December 31, 2026, from the IEX closing price", "reference": "EFX closed at $158.52 on October 19 and traded at $175.44 on October 20 after the results, about 11% above the bar. The case for yes: the full-year adjusted earnings goal moved only $0.04 to $8.50, third-quarter adjusted earnings beat the top of the July range, Diversified Markets guidance held at high single digits, and the fourth-quarter range already prices in a weak mortgage market. The case for no: the third-quarter beat hides a cut of about $0.10 a share to the implied fourth-quarter outlook, fourth-quarter growth of only 3.5% to 5.4%, a mortgage slump management calls the worst in decades, a housing regulator who says the bureaus overcharge, and payouts plus the Círculo de Crédito price adding to debt. Fourth-quarter results likely come after December 31, so the signals before then are any regulator move on bureau pricing and the Círculo closing. A fall back below $158.52 would need the market to give up the whole post-results gain, which we think needs new bad news rather than the risks already disclosed. Confidence: moderate.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "Equifax", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/EFX/2026/q3", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/EFX/2026/q3", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-20-1035267-41d29f09d1", "reportId": "isrg-2026-10-20", "ticker": "ISRG", "question": "Will Intuitive's third-quarter 10-Q show more than $2.8 billion of operating cash flow for the nine months to September 30, 2026?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-20", "resolveBy": "2026-10-29", "resolveWhen": "when Intuitive files its 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2026", "reference": "Operating cash flow was $1.97 billion in the first half of 2026, so a yes needs only about $0.83 billion in the third quarter. The release shows cash and investments fell $1.83 billion while buybacks alone cost $2.94 billion, which implies more than $1 billion of other cash came in, mostly from operations, before counting equipment purchases. The $450 million settlement was reached in October, after the quarter ended, so it was not paid in the third quarter. A no would mean working capital, taxes or unsettled buyback timing absorbed far more cash than in the first half. Confidence: moderately high.", "outcome": { "result": "yes", "on": "2026-10-21", "because": "operating cash flow, nine months to September 30, 2026 was 3197000000 in the 10-Q dated 2026-10-21; the call needed > 2800000000.", "evidence": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035267/000103526726000071/0001035267-26-000071-index.htm" }, "verdict": "right", "company": "Intuitive Surgical", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/ISRG/2026/q3", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/ISRG/2026/q3", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-20-1375365-7d0f7a04ac", "reportId": "smci-2026-10-20", "ticker": "SMCI", "question": "Will SMCI stock close above $32 on November 4, 2026, the day after its first-quarter results?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-20", "resolveBy": "2026-11-04", "resolveWhen": "at the regular-session close on November 4, 2026, the first close after the November 3 results call", "reference": "SMCI closed at $32.08 on October 19 and traded at $32.465 a minute before the October 20 close, before the update; it then traded at $36 after hours. The estimated sales of $18.5 billion to $19.5 billion beat the $14.5 billion to $15.5 billion guide by about $4 billion at the midpoint, and margin of 12.0% to 12.5% beat a 10.4% to 10.8% guide, so the pre-news price did not include the beat. Final numbers may differ, but the company has given a narrow range. The main risks to a yes are cash flow (fiscal 2026 used $6.8 billion of operating cash and the company had committed to $34.2 billion of purchases), a full-year goal left unchanged, and a renewed AI selloff in a stock that fell 29.6% from October 7 to October 16. We judge a hold above $32 more likely than not, with moderate confidence.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "Super Micro Computer", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/SMCI/2027/q1", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/SMCI/2027/q1", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-20-1918102-36415b7585", "reportId": "fisn-2026-10-20", "ticker": "FISN", "question": "Will FISN stock close above $3.66 on January 29, 2027?", "prediction": "no", "opened": "2026-10-20", "resolveBy": "2027-01-29", "resolveWhen": "at the regular-session close on January 29, 2027, from the IEX price file", "reference": "$3.66 is the last close before the contract news; the stock was $2.81 at the October 20 close. We say no because the 10-Q says cash will not fund twelve months and raises substantial going-concern doubt, so a share sale is likely at a low price; the insider lock-up ends six months after the June 18, 2026 listing, before the date; and the contract carries no minimum purchase, so it adds no certain revenue. The risk to the call is a sector rally or a financing on good terms.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "Deep Fission", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/FISN/2026/q4", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/FISN/2026/q4", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-20-899923-4aa7080cbf", "reportId": "mygn-2026-10-20", "ticker": "MYGN", "question": "Will MYGN stock close above $4.50 on December 31, 2026?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-20", "resolveBy": "2026-12-31", "resolveWhen": "at the regular-session close on December 31, 2026, from the IEX closing price", "reference": "The cash is worth about $2.20 a share and Labcorp has the money, but neither reaches Myriad before the expected early 2027 closing, and this stock fell 47% in a single session when it missed estimates on July 30, so a repeat on the November 4 call could push it back below $4.50 even if the deal holds; we still say yes, because $5.775 leaves a 28% cushion above the $4.50 line that a signed agreement with a cash-ready buyer underpins.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "Myriad Genetics", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/MYGN/2026/q4", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/MYGN/2026/q4", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-19-764065-eb311628e6", "reportId": "clf-2026-10-19", "ticker": "CLF", "question": "Will CLF stock close above $12 on February 26, 2027?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-19", "resolveBy": "2027-02-26", "resolveWhen": "at the regular-session close on February 26, 2027, from the IEX closing price", "reference": "CLF was $14.1 at the close on October 19, 2026, after a $12.145 close on October 16. A yes needs the stock to hold above $12, below its pre-news close, through the fourth-quarter report expected early in 2027. The evidence for yes: the third quarter beat the company's own target by $37 million, management guides about $715 million for the fourth quarter and more than $4 billion for 2027, and it promises a major fourth-quarter debt cut. At about 3.9 times enterprise value to the 2027 floor, a stock that keeps that outlook intact has room. The evidence against: $7.6 billion of long-term debt, operating cash flow of $129 million against $461 million of capital spending from January through September, a forecast built on price forecasts that steel markets can undo, and the Stelco dispute in Canada. A fourth-quarter miss or a sharp fall in steel prices would likely send it back below $12. Moderate confidence.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "Cleveland-Cliffs", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/CLF/2026/q3", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/CLF/2026/q3", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-20-1816736-026d749a99", "reportId": "iron-2026-10-19", "ticker": "IRON", "question": "Will IRON stock close above $65 on January 29, 2027?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-20", "resolveBy": "2027-01-29", "resolveWhen": "at the regular-session close on January 29, 2027, from the IEX day file", "reference": "APOLLO met both main goals and every secondary goal, answering the link between PPIX and sunlight time that the FDA's February 2026 letter found missing, and the FDA had said a successful APOLLO could be the basis of the response. The $350 million sale, if completed near the assumed $328 million net, funds Disc into 2030 by its own estimate, so financing risk is low through the refiling due by the end of 2026. $65 sits between the $56.94 close before the news and the $78.93 close after it, so a NO most likely needs a broken story: a sale priced far below the market, a missed refiling, or new safety worries about dizziness, which hit 50% on the drug against 11% on placebo. Biotech volatility makes this likely, not certain.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "Disc Medicine", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/IRON/2026/q4", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/IRON/2026/q4", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-19-1314102-3c14e7b0fa", "reportId": "eypt-2026-10-19", "ticker": "EYPT", "question": "Will EyePoint's shares close above one dollar on the last trading day of 2026?", "prediction": "no", "opened": "2026-10-19", "resolveBy": "2026-12-31", "resolveWhen": "the closing price for December 31, 2026 is published", "reference": "P02", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "EyePoint, Inc.", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/EYPT/2026/q4", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/EYPT/2026/q4", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-16-2071778-9799edcb29", "reportId": "frmi-2026-10-16", "ticker": "FRMI", "question": "Will FRMI stock close above $2 on December 31, 2026?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-16", "resolveBy": "2026-12-31", "resolveWhen": "at the regular-session close on December 31, 2026, from the IEX price file", "reference": "Yes, with moderate confidence: $2 sits about 37% below the $3.16 October 16 close. The waiver puts off up to about $56 million of faster repayments through mid-2027 for a $25 million fee, AMD has signed credit support for the TensorWave lease, and the July notes raised about $382 million after capped calls, though no filing gives cash after June 30 and the 10-Q expects about $2 billion of spending in the next twelve months. A NO most likely comes from the TensorWave lease failing to close or win another extension by October 31, which the 10-Q says would materially constrain liquidity, or from the December 31 Keystone and Texas Tech deadlines. Against us: the stock fell about 38% from $5.12 on September 22, and the founder group sold about 4.05 million shares on October 13 and 14.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "Fermi", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/FRMI/2026/q4", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/FRMI/2026/q4", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-16-1367644-6c3a799f81", "reportId": "ebs-2026-10-16", "ticker": "EBS", "question": "Will EBS stock close above $5 on November 30, 2026?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-16", "resolveBy": "2026-11-30", "resolveWhen": "at the regular-session close on November 30, 2026, from the IEX closing price", "reference": "EBS was $6.265 at 10:47 a.m. on October 16, 2026, after the CFO news. A close below $5 would take it under the $5.31 low it hit on August 6, the day after the impairment and the guidance cut, which was the worst news of the year. The bad news is largely public: guidance already implies almost no adjusted EBITDA in the second half, and third-quarter revenue guidance is $110 to $130 million. On the other side, receivables were mostly collected by July, net debt is about 1.9 times trailing adjusted EBITDA by the company's measure, the leverage cap of 5.25 times leaves room, and the company says its liquidity covers the next twelve months. The main risk to a yes is a third-quarter miss or another guidance cut on November 2, 2026.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "Emergent BioSolutions", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/EBS/2026/q4", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/EBS/2026/q4", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-15-717826-e2243e0d36", "reportId": "eric-2026-10-15", "ticker": "ERIC", "question": "Will ERIC stock close above $9 on January 21, 2027?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-15", "resolveBy": "2027-01-21", "resolveWhen": "at the regular-session close on January 21, 2027, the trading day before Ericsson's full-year report, from the IEX close", "reference": "ERIC closed at $10.71 on October 15, 2026 after the third-quarter report. A close below $9 would mean a fall of about 16% before the January 22, 2027 report, below every close in our data since mid-September. Supporting yes: SEK 60.7 billion of net cash at September 30 (about SEK 55.7 billion after the October 2 dividend), about SEK 5.8 billion of buyback left after early-October purchases to be spent by March 31, 2027, at prices the company paid near SEK 94 in early October, and Q4 guidance of a 49% to 51% Networks gross margin. Against: a component cost headwind to 2027 gross margin, a flat radio market, and back-dated licensing fees that flattered the third quarter.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "Ericsson", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/ERIC/2026/q3", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/ERIC/2026/q3", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-15-944809-213f12269b", "reportId": "opk-2026-10-15", "ticker": "OPK", "question": "Will OPK stock close above $1.30 on April 14, 2027?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-15", "resolveBy": "2027-04-14", "resolveWhen": "at the market close on April 14, 2027, the deal's outside date", "reference": "OPK closed at $1.365 the day before the news and as low as $1.32 in our price file, with no deal. The deal brings $722 million in cash with no financing condition for a lab unit that lost money before one-time gains, and Labcorp owes $28.88 million if regulators block it. Only a broken deal plus heavy cash burn should push the stock back below its pre-deal low by the outside date.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "OPKO Health", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/OPK/2026/q4", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/OPK/2026/q4", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-15-37785-2312d8e964", "reportId": "fmc-2026-10-15", "ticker": "FMC", "question": "Will FMC stock close above $8.10 on December 31, 2026?", "prediction": "no", "opened": "2026-10-15", "resolveBy": "2026-12-31", "resolveWhen": "at the regular-session close on December 31, 2026, from the IEX price file", "reference": "FMC closed at $8.095 on October 14, the night before the release, and traded at $5.355 the next afternoon. Getting back above that pre-news level by year-end would need the October 29 results and October 30 targets to show cash largely intact and the banks agreeing to easy terms. FMC itself says the covenant talks run over the next year, a material impairment may be booked for the quarter, and trailing Adjusted EBITDA on the new guidance is around zero against about $3.8 billion of net debt, with the first 6.75 leverage test at December 31. We lean no. A quick bank amendment, strong restocking orders or a takeover approach would prove us wrong.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "FMC Corporation", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/FMC/2026/q3", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/FMC/2026/q3", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-14-908315-f21608c564", "reportId": "wina-2026-10-14", "ticker": "WINA", "question": "Will Winmark's fiscal 2026 total revenue, reported in its 10-K, be above $94 million?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-14", "resolveBy": "2027-03-31", "resolveWhen": "when Winmark files its 10-K for the fiscal year ending December 26, 2026, expected in late February 2027", "reference": "Nine-month 2026 revenue is $70.7 million, so the fourth quarter needs about $23.3 million to clear $94 million. The fourth quarter of 2025 brought in about $21.1 million ($86.06 million for the year minus $64.97 million for nine months), with no ad fund and only a small software line. The fourth quarter of 2026 adds a full quarter of the Plato's Closet ad fund (2% of sales; $3.8 million in the third quarter; about $13.5 million a year on 2025 sales), which is booked as revenue, plus a full quarter of the $295 monthly software fee (about $1.2 million across 1,398 stores), on top of royalties still growing 3.8%. What would make it NO: a sharp fall in store sales in the holiday quarter, fee waivers, or a change in how the ad fund is booked. Confidence: moderately high.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "Winmark", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/WINA/2026/q3", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/WINA/2026/q3", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-14-1819994-825c53e62f", "reportId": "rklb-2026-10-14", "ticker": "RKLB", "question": "Will RKLB stock close above $67.50 on December 31, 2026?", "prediction": "no", "opened": "2026-10-14", "resolveBy": "2026-12-31", "resolveWhen": "at the regular-session close on December 31, 2026, from the IEX close for RKLB", "reference": "RKLB was $54.95 after hours on October 14, so closing above $67.50, the Iridium collar floor, needs a gain of about 23% in under three months. The 8-K gives no new quarter for Neutron's first flight and no cost, the 10-Q warns delays may require more spending, and the company guided a wider adjusted EBITDA loss for the third quarter. The stock had already slid to $59.195 before the release. The case for yes: RKLB is volatile and closed at $75.05 as recently as October 6, and a dated Neutron plan or strong third-quarter results could lift it. Without a dated plan, we expect it to stay below the floor at year end.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "Rocket Lab", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/RKLB/2026/q4", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/RKLB/2026/q4", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-14-1460702-c77d86a744", "reportId": "ffr-2026-10-14", "ticker": "FFR", "question": "Will FFR stock close above the $2.246 deal price on December 31, 2026?", "prediction": "no", "opened": "2026-10-14", "resolveBy": "2026-12-31", "resolveWhen": "at the regular-session close on December 31, 2026, from the IEX price file", "reference": "FFR last closed at $1.50 on October 12, 2026 in our price file, the same price new private-sale buyers are paying, so the stock must rise about 50% to pass the $2.246 deal price. Faraday's own plan needs about $150 million before cash flow turns positive, against at most $10 million lined up and $577,328 of cash at June 30, so more share sales are likely. The market's first reaction to the term sheet was a 40% fall, from $1.67 on September 28 to $1.005 on September 29. A close above $2.246 would mean the market values the robot business at or above Faraday's own $200 million price.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "FF EAI Robotics Ecosystem (FFR)", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/FFR/2026/q4", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/FFR/2026/q4", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-13-1904856-22830c9107", "reportId": "efxt-2026-10-13", "ticker": "EFXT", "question": "Will EFXT stock close above $24 on October 30, 2026?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-13", "resolveBy": "2026-10-30", "resolveWhen": "At the regular-session close on October 30, 2026, the day after third-quarter results.", "reference": "YES, with moderate confidence (about 65%). The order lifts the behind-the-meter power backlog above 1.75 gigawatts with deliveries through 2028, and the balance sheet (net debt of $455 million, 0.8 times on the lenders' test, $660 million of liquidity) does not need new money to build it. The stock traded at $27.54 late on October 13 against a $24.09 close on October 12. After the October 1 order it rose from $22.775 to $25.44, but that gain faded below $24 within four sessions, closing at $23.69 on October 7, so the call depends on the larger order and the October 29 results holding the price. A close above $24 on October 30 asks the stock to hold above roughly its pre-announcement level after third-quarter results. What would make this wrong: weak Engineered Systems margins, a much larger capital bill, or a backlog that fails to show the orders in dollars.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "Enerflex", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/EFXT/2026/q4", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/EFXT/2026/q4", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-13-2084227-87d4b129dc", "reportId": "adbt-2026-10-13", "ticker": "ADBT", "question": "Will ADBT stock close above $0.20 on November 30, 2026?", "prediction": "no", "opened": "2026-10-13", "resolveBy": "2026-11-30", "resolveWhen": "At the regular-session close on November 30, 2026, from the IEX price file.", "reference": "ADBT last closed at $0.1243 on October 9, 2026, before the targets came out. A close above $0.20 needs a rise of about 61%. Since our data began on September 15 the stock has closed between $0.1046 and $0.1472. If measured like the quarterly report, the full-year operating income goal implies losses for the rest of fiscal 2027. Cash was $1.51 million against $1.58 million of income tax payable. The company says the plan depends on funding, which at this price would mean heavy dilution, and up to 94,046,357 registered shares can be sold, with affiliates free to use the insider resale rule from November. Against this view: the float is small and the stock is volatile, and a strong July-to-September report, likely due around mid-November, could lift it. We put moderate confidence on NO.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "Advasa Holdings", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/ADBT/2027/q3", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/ADBT/2027/q3", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-13-1920406-64a3fa0a7d", "reportId": "asst-2026-10-13", "ticker": "ASST", "question": "Will ASST stock close above $30 on December 31, 2026?", "prediction": "no", "opened": "2026-10-13", "resolveBy": "2026-12-31", "resolveWhen": "At the regular-session close on December 31, 2026, from the IEX price file.", "reference": "ASST closed at $27.705 on October 12, so a close above $30 needs a gain of about 8%. We lean NO, with moderate confidence, because of supply. Warrants for 15,255,900 shares carry a $27.00 exercise price, so holders can exercise and sell above that level. Class A shares rose about 10% in one week to October 9, and Strive keeps selling stock through at-the-market programs. SATS adds about $75M a year of dividends ahead of common, which Strive expects to fund mainly with new capital after the reserve runs out. Against us: ASST's volatility runs 74% to 103% a year by Strive's own figures, so a bitcoin rally could lift it past $30; it closed at $30.23 on October 5 and rose 165% in August and September.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "Strive", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/ASST/2026/q4", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/ASST/2026/q4", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-14-1385849-9b1c9fdc23", "reportId": "uuuu-2026-10-13", "ticker": "UUUU", "question": "Will UUUU stock close above $11.35 on March 31, 2027?", "prediction": "no", "opened": "2026-10-14", "resolveBy": "2027-03-31", "resolveWhen": "At the regular-session close on March 31, 2027, from the IEX price file", "reference": "UUUU last closed at $9.64 on October 12, 2026, before the filing, so a yes needs about an 18% gain back to the $11.35 the pro forma used. We lean no. The October 13 prospectus lets Energy Fuels sell up to $500 million of new shares, and it may use the money toward the cash for Ara. VAC lost €57.4 million after tax in the first half of 2026 and had positive operating cash flow only because of a tax credit sale. Pro forma cash and securities fall to $337.4 million. The Sumter plant lost the customer it was built around. Against that, the amendment pays off e-VAC's loan from Ara's cash, the uranium business sells well above cost, and the stock swings widely, so our confidence is only moderate.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "Energy Fuels", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/UUUU/2026/q4", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/UUUU/2026/q4", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-09-818479-ac3fe31b86", "reportId": "xray-2026-10-09", "ticker": "XRAY", "question": "Will XRAY stock close above $10 at the end of December 2026?", "prediction": "no", "opened": "2026-10-09", "resolveBy": "2026-12-31", "resolveWhen": "at the close on December 31, 2026, the last trading day of the year, from the IEX closing price", "reference": "XRAY closed at $8.68 on October 8 and traded at $8.835 just before the October 9 close, so a YES needs roughly a 13% to 15% gain. We say NO with moderate confidence (about 65%). The amendment buys time but signals strain. Lenders made room for up to $100 million of cash charges tied to an undisclosed matter, about a full year of free cash flow. The September test swaps out a strong third quarter of 2025, and our leverage gauge is flattered by $44 million of tariff refunds. Sales are falling about 6% in constant currency, and the stock fell about 12% after its September 15 Baird presentation while the sector fund rose. The cap tightens to 3.75x in March 2027. The risk to the call: a clean third-quarter report with an intact outlook, small add-back charges and visible restructuring savings could spark a relief rally from a stock trading near 6 times guided adjusted earnings.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "Dentsply Sirona", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/XRAY/2026/q4", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/XRAY/2026/q4", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-10-1049659-c1b896d502", "reportId": "sid-2026-10-09", "ticker": "SID", "question": "Will SID stock close above $1 on December 18, 2026?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-10", "resolveBy": "2026-12-18", "resolveWhen": "at the regular-session close on December 18, 2026, about when SWT exclusivity can expire, using the IEX closing price", "reference": "SID traded at $1.27 at 3:59 in the afternoon on October 9, the day CSN filed the SWT notice. No source shows whether that trade came before or after the news. That price is about 27% above the $1 New York Stock Exchange minimum CSN was warned about on August 13, and $1 is the level that matters for the listing cure period. Evidence for YES: binding SWT terms with up to 10 weeks of exclusivity, binding cement bids received August 10, and a cement sale CSN expects to finish by year-end. These point to progress on the R$15 billion to R$18 billion debt-cut plan. Evidence against: the stock closed at $1.02 on September 29 after the mining guidance cut and ended June at $0.92. The €550 million is enterprise value subject to adjustments, and the term sheet can still fail. Leverage was 3.49x in June, just under CSN's 3.5x first-half guide, and the mining cut could push third-quarter leverage over it. A collapse in the SWT or cement talks, or weaker iron ore, could push the shares below $1. Confidence about 65%.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "CSN (Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional)", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/SID/2026/q4", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/SID/2026/q4", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-09-1468642-cd77f6eda2", "reportId": "augo-2026-10-09", "ticker": "AUGO", "question": "Will AUGO be above $82 at the end of next January?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-09", "resolveBy": "2027-01-29", "resolveWhen": "at the IEX regular-session close on January 29, 2027", "reference": "AUGO closed at $82.56 on October 8, 2026, the last close before the release, and traded at $91.25 at 3:55 PM on October 9. A YES needs the stock to hold just under its pre-news level. For YES: a repeat quarter already clears the low end at current prices, and the forecast-price gap is only about 2,500 ounces. Net debt (debt minus cash) is 0.21 times trailing adjusted EBITDA. Management also expects a further fourth-quarter rise and gives a reason for each mine. Against: at forecast prices Aura needs 93,659 ounces in the fourth quarter, more than the 91,188 it just made. That fourth-quarter update should come in January, going by the July 10 and October 9 preliminary releases, so it lands before the test date. Gold also drives the price: AUGO fell to $77.79 on September 28. Kapitalo, whose partner sits on the board, sold heavily in August and September. Confidence is moderate, about 60%.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "Aura Minerals", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/AUGO/2026/q3", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/AUGO/2026/q3", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-09-49071-6fe2251a83", "reportId": "hum-2026-10-09", "ticker": "HUM", "question": "Will HUM stock close above $385 on Dec 11?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-09", "resolveBy": "2026-12-11", "resolveWhen": "at the market close on December 11, 2026, the day after Humana's investor update", "reference": "Prediction: YES, moderate confidence (about 65%). HUM traded at $387.28 in the last minute of trading on October 8, 2026 (P04), before Humana's news, and traded at $435.73 at 12:03 PM ET on October 9 (P05). The final 2027 ratings beat Humana's top-quarter goal (A01), and 95% of its Medicare Advantage members are in plans of 4 stars or more (B01). Humana prices its plans for a top-quarter result, so it expects an extra 2028 benefit (A07, A09). The ratings are final. The $385 line sits below that $387.28 price. So a NO needs the stock to give back the whole gain, most likely after a weak December 10, 2026 update (A12) or weak third-quarter results. Evidence against: the stock already cost about 43 times its 2026 adjusted earnings forecast of at least $9.00 (A13). The gain has no dollar total and part of it is one-time (A10, A08). A market sell-off could also push it lower.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "Humana", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/HUM/2026/q4", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/HUM/2026/q4", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-08-1866175-f293a89356", "reportId": "crgy-2026-10-08", "ticker": "CRGY", "question": "Will CRGY list over 395 million shares in its next report?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-08", "resolveBy": "2026-12-15", "resolveWhen": "when Crescent files its third-quarter 2026 report, likely in November 2026", "reference": "Prediction: YES, high confidence (about 85%). The cover-page share count of the Form 10-Q for the quarter ending September 30, 2026 settles it. Crescent had 330,456,708 shares on October 6, 2026 (O07). It is selling $1.0 billion of new shares, plus a $150 million option (O01, O04). At the $13.47 close on October 7 (O02), $1.0 billion buys about 74 million shares, for about 405 million in all. A YES needs about 65 million new shares, so it holds if Crescent sells at least about $870 million at that price, or the full $1.0 billion at any price up to about $15.50. The KKR fund has indicated an interest in up to half (O03). The sale does not depend on the deal closing (O05). Evidence against: the price and size are not final, the fund's interest is not a firm order, and the company could cut or pull the sale if the stock falls. Crescent's 10-Q cover for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 tagged EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding at 330,403,696 shares on July 31, 2026.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "Crescent Energy", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/CRGY/2026/q4", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/CRGY/2026/q4", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-08-1396814-5209cc2503", "reportId": "pcrx-2026-10-08", "ticker": "PCRX", "question": "Will PCRX stock close above $35 on October 22, 2026?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-08", "resolveBy": "2026-10-22", "resolveWhen": "on October 22, 2026, from that day's closing price", "reference": "Viatris agreed to pay $36.50 cash a share. An officer's sale notice filed October 8 valued shares at about $36.32. PCRX closed at $25.19 on October 7, before the news. The offer has no financing condition, and its main conditions are a majority tender and the end of an antitrust waiting period. A close below $35 would mean traders fear the deal could fail, such as from a long antitrust review or a court challenge.", "outcome": { "result": "yes", "on": "2026-10-22", "because": "Closed at $36.34 on 2026-10-22; the call needed > $35.00.", "evidence": "https://api.tiingo.com/tiingo/daily/PCRX/prices?startDate=2026-10-22&endDate=2026-10-22" }, "verdict": "right", "company": "Pacira BioSciences", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/PCRX/2026/q4", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/PCRX/2026/q4", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-07-94845-02a599b0b6", "reportId": "levi-2026-10-07", "ticker": "LEVI", "question": "Will Levi's sales for its 2026 fiscal year top $6.68 billion?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-07", "resolveBy": "2027-02-28", "resolveWhen": "when Levi Strauss files its Form 10-K for the fiscal year ending November 29, 2026", "reference": "Levi had $4,914.2 million of revenue in the first nine months of fiscal 2026. Fourth-quarter revenue a year earlier was $1,766 million, so $6.68 billion for the year means fourth-quarter revenue roughly at or above last year's. Levi's own goal of about 7.0% reported growth on 2025's $6,282 million implies about $6.72 billion, or about 2% fourth-quarter growth. Third-quarter revenue grew 4.3%. Refunds lower cost of goods, not revenue. The risk is a weak holiday season in its own stores, where comparable sales were flat in the third quarter. Levi's 2025 revenue was tagged as RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, $6,282,000,000, in its 10-K for the year ended November 30, 2025.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "Levi Strauss & Co.", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/LEVI/2026/q3", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/LEVI/2026/q3", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-08-1144879-cf73a0945c", "reportId": "apld-2026-10-07", "ticker": "APLD", "question": "Will APLD list over 305 million shares in its next report?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-08", "resolveBy": "2027-01-20", "resolveWhen": "when the next quarterly report comes out, likely in January 2027", "reference": "Prediction: YES, moderate-high confidence (about 75%). The cover-page share count of the Form 10-Q for the quarter ending November 30, 2026 settles it. The 10-Q filed October 7 shows 302,387,140 shares on October 6 (C29), up about 14.5 million from 287,883,603 on May 31 (C25). A YES needs only about 2.6 million more shares by the next cover date, under 1% growth. All Series G has already converted (C45), so the new shares must come from fresh Series G sales, warrant exercises or vesting stock awards. The company spent $2.07 billion on buildings against $63.9 million of operating cash in one quarter (C11, C10), and it sold $275.0 million of Series G that quarter (C44). As of September 25, $835.0 million of Series G could still be issued under the $2 billion line (C93, C69); at about $25 a share that is about 33 million shares (P03). Series G converts at the greater of 95% of the lowest recent daily average price and a floor the board can cut to $4.48 (C70, C91, C92). On top of that, 15.2 million unvested stock units vest over time (C41), and 28.1 million warrants with an $8.61 average exercise price (C42, C77) sit far below the stock (P03). Evidence against: shares are withheld for taxes when awards vest (C74, C75), the filings do not say whether more Series G sales are planned, and the company could lean on project debt or Macquarie preferred units instead of common stock. The call fails only if issuance nearly stops for a full quarter while the build-out continues.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "Applied Digital", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/APLD/2027/q1", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/APLD/2027/q1", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-07-1838406-2a8a496beb", "reportId": "bkv-2026-10-07", "ticker": "BKV", "question": "Will BKV have fewer than 112 million shares outstanding at the end of 2026?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-07", "resolveBy": "2027-03-31", "resolveWhen": "when BKV files its Form 10-K for 2026", "reference": "BKV had 109,437,830 shares on July 31, 2026, and bought back 1,452,282 in September, which leaves about 108 million. Stock awards added only about 0.2 million shares in the first half. The September convertible notes left about $455 million for spending and debt, and they pay face value in cash on conversion, at a conversion price far above the stock. To pass 112 million by year end, BKV would need to sell about 4 million new shares. It did sell stock in March 2026, so it is possible, but with fresh cash in hand we say yes.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "BKV Corporation", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/BKV/2026/q4", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/BKV/2026/q4", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-07-1515673-426513ded4", "reportId": "rare-2026-10-07", "ticker": "RARE", "question": "Will RARE lose less than $450 million for all of 2026?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-07", "resolveBy": "2027-03-31", "resolveWhen": "when Ultragenyx files its Form 10-K for 2026", "reference": "Ultragenyx lost $277 million in the first half of 2026, $92 million of it in the second quarter. If the second half runs near the second-quarter pace, the loss before the voucher is about $460 million. The voucher sale, if it closes in 2026, adds a one-time gain of up to about $168 million before fees and taxes, which would bring the year near $300 million. Costs of ending the apazunersen program could eat into that cushion, and the sale could slip into 2027. We say yes.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/RARE/2026/q4", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/RARE/2026/q4", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-06-923796-0ab31a542d", "reportId": "geo-2026-10-05", "ticker": "GEO", "question": "Will GEO's total debt at the end of 2026 be under $1 billion?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-06", "resolveBy": "2027-03-31", "resolveWhen": "when GEO files its Form 10-K for 2026", "reference": "GEO owed about $1.54 billion at June 30, 2026. On October 15 it pays off all $650 million of its 8.625% notes due 2029 with the Adelanto sale cash, which leaves about $890 million. It would have to borrow more than $110 million by year end, for buybacks or anything else, to end 2026 at $1 billion or more. We say yes.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "The GEO Group", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/GEO/2026/q4", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/GEO/2026/q4", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-06-1669779-7fdf15fcd5", "reportId": "cwh-2026-10-05", "ticker": "CWH", "question": "Will CWH sales for the third quarter of 2026 be less than $1.8 billion?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-06", "resolveBy": "2026-12-31", "resolveWhen": "when Camping World files its Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2026", "reference": "CWH's third-quarter 2025 revenue rose 4.7% to about $1.8 billion on a 32.9% jump in used-RV units. In the second quarter of 2026 revenue fell 2.1% as new-RV units fell 16.4%, partly offset by 13.6% higher new-RV prices. The October 5 filing says units stayed soft through the third quarter and discounting got heavier. We say yes.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "Camping World Holdings", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/CWH/2026/q4", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/CWH/2026/q4", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-06-1130713-64f2e49178", "reportId": "nxh-2026-10-05", "ticker": "NXH", "question": "Will NXH stock close above $2.76 at the end of March 2027?", "prediction": "no", "opened": "2026-10-06", "resolveBy": "2027-03-31", "resolveWhen": "on March 31, 2027, from that day's closing price", "reference": "Neighborhood Intelligence sold 16,485,508 shares at $2.76 on October 5, 2026, and the stock closed at $2.06 that day. It must gain 34% while it burns roughly $18 million a month, its bank credit line ends in October, and warrants, notes and an at-the-market plan can add shares.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "Neighborhood Intelligence", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/NXH/2026/q4", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/NXH/2026/q4", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-06-1043277-63687eba9b", "reportId": "chrw-2026-10-05", "ticker": "CHRW", "question": "Will CHRW stock close above $157.62 at the end of June 2027?", "prediction": "no", "opened": "2026-10-06", "resolveBy": "2027-06-30", "resolveWhen": "on June 30, 2027, from that day's closing price", "reference": "CHRW closed at $157.62 on October 2, 2026 and $140.55 on October 5, 2026. Getting back above $157.62 by mid-2027 needs the deal closed, savings showing, and the $604 million verdict settled cheaply, all while buybacks are paused and debt runs above its note cap before savings. We say no.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "C.H. Robinson Worldwide", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/CHRW/2026/q4", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/CHRW/2026/q4", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-06-857005-59eafc6035", "reportId": "ptc-2026-10-05", "ticker": "PTC", "question": "Will PTC stock close above $190 at the end of March 2027?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-06", "resolveBy": "2027-03-31", "resolveWhen": "on March 31, 2027, from that day's closing price", "reference": "Schneider agreed to pay $205 cash a share, with closing expected by the third quarter of 2027. PTC closed at $192.28 on October 5, 2026. A close above $190 means a gap of under $15 to the offer. That holds unless the vote fails, U.S. antitrust officials open a long second review, or security officials demand PTC be run separately.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "PTC", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/PTC/2027/q1", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/PTC/2027/q1", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-03-1326380-eb3ad6ad47", "reportId": "gme-2026-10-02", "ticker": "GME", "question": "Will GameStop close above $32 before its warrants run out?", "prediction": "no", "opened": "2026-10-03", "resolveBy": "2026-10-30", "resolveWhen": "the first trading day GME closes above $32.00, or October 30, 2026 if it never does", "reference": "GameStop's warrants carry a $32.00 exercise price and expire October 30, 2026. GME closed at $24.10 on October 1, 2026, and Ryan Cohen bought 700,000 shares at about $24.41 on October 2.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "GameStop", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/GME/2026/q2", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/GME/2026/q2", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-03-1824893-843cd05e20", "reportId": "srzn-2026-10-02", "ticker": "SRZN", "question": "Will Surrozen close its stock sale by the end of October?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-03", "resolveBy": "2026-10-31", "resolveWhen": "when Surrozen files a Form 8-K or 10-Q saying the second closing of its 2025 private placement was completed, or on October 31, 2026 if it files none", "reference": "FDA clearance of the SZN-8141 IND met the second closing milestone, and Surrozen expects the closing on or about October 20, 2026. The buyers pay $11.60 a share, against a $29.375 close on October 2, 2026.", "outcome": { "result": "push", "on": "2026-10-05", "because": "Replaced on 2026-10-05 by a question a machine can settle; see the call it points to.", "evidence": null }, "verdict": "push", "company": "Surrozen", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/SRZN/2026/q3", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/SRZN/2026/q3", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-05-1824893-6405209e98", "reportId": "srzn-2026-10-02", "ticker": "SRZN", "question": "Will SRZN stock close above $29 on Oct 30?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-05", "resolveBy": "2026-10-30", "resolveWhen": "at the market close on October 30, 2026", "reference": "The second closing of the stock sale removes the funding question; SRZN closed at $29.375 on October 2, 2026.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "Surrozen", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/SRZN/2026/q3", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/SRZN/2026/q3", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-03-917520-36e7a36fb2", "reportId": "iart-2026-10-02", "ticker": "IART", "question": "Will Integra finish refinancing its bank debt by the end of 2026?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-03", "resolveBy": "2026-12-31", "resolveWhen": "when Integra files a Form 8-K saying it entered a new credit agreement or term loan replacing its senior credit facility, or on December 31, 2026 if it files none", "reference": "Integra launched a proposed $600 million seven-year Term Loan B on October 2, 2026 as part of a broader refinancing, after a September 8 lender presentation. Its leverage was 4.10 times at June 30 against a limit that drops to 4.75 at September 30. IART closed at $12.665 on October 2, 2026.", "outcome": { "result": "push", "on": "2026-10-05", "because": "Replaced on 2026-10-05 by a question a machine can settle; see the call it points to.", "evidence": null }, "verdict": "push", "company": "Integra LifeSciences", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/IART/2026/q3", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/IART/2026/q3", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-05-917520-cad151b721", "reportId": "iart-2026-10-02", "ticker": "IART", "question": "Will IART stock close above $13 on Dec 31?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-05", "resolveBy": "2026-12-31", "resolveWhen": "at the market close on December 31, 2026", "reference": "Integra launched a $600 million Term Loan B on October 2, 2026 to refinance before its leverage limit tightens; IART closed at $12.665 on October 2, 2026.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "Integra LifeSciences", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/IART/2026/q3", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/IART/2026/q3", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-03-1591588-b3ad4b921c", "reportId": "gold-2026-10-02", "ticker": "GOLD", "question": "Will Gold.com still owe more than $1 billion to Tether and its group at September 30?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-03", "resolveBy": "2026-11-30", "resolveWhen": "when Gold.com files its Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2026", "reference": "Gold.com's balance sheet showed $1.45 billion from related parties inside deferred revenue and other advances at June 30, 2026, and its proxy says the Tether dealings are ongoing in fiscal 2027. On September 29 it made its bank line uncommitted and cut it to $250 million. GOLD closed at $42.325 on October 2, 2026.", "outcome": { "result": "push", "on": "2026-10-05", "because": "Replaced on 2026-10-05 by a question a machine can settle; see the call it points to.", "evidence": null }, "verdict": "push", "company": "Gold.com", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/GOLD/2026/q3", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/GOLD/2026/q3", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-05-1591588-662b5bafae", "reportId": "gold-2026-10-02", "ticker": "GOLD", "question": "Will GOLD stock close above $42 on Nov 30?", "prediction": "no", "opened": "2026-10-05", "resolveBy": "2026-11-30", "resolveWhen": "at the market close on November 30, 2026", "reference": "Gold.com leans on $1.45 billion from Tether-related parties and cut its bank line to an uncommitted $250 million on September 29; GOLD closed at $42.325 on October 2, 2026.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "Gold.com", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/GOLD/2026/q3", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/GOLD/2026/q3", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-03-1590717-ffe4f9e45e", "reportId": "ctre-2026-10-02", "ticker": "CTRE", "question": "Will CareTrust's normalized FFO reach $2.06 a share this year?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-03", "resolveBy": "2027-03-31", "resolveWhen": "when CareTrust reports its full-year 2026 results, or on March 31, 2027 if it has not", "reference": "CareTrust raised its 2026 normalized FFO guidance to $2.06 to $2.09 a share on October 2, 2026, from $2.03 to $2.06 in August. CTRE closed at $36.28 on October 2, 2026.", "outcome": { "result": "push", "on": "2026-10-05", "because": "Replaced on 2026-10-05 by a question a machine can settle; see the call it points to.", "evidence": null }, "verdict": "push", "company": "CareTrust REIT", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/CTRE/2026/q3", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/CTRE/2026/q3", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-05-1590717-f3b4e16e5c", "reportId": "ctre-2026-10-02", "ticker": "CTRE", "question": "Will CTRE stock close above $36 on Mar 31, 2027?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-05", "resolveBy": "2027-03-31", "resolveWhen": "at the market close on March 31, 2027", "reference": "CareTrust raised its 2026 normalized FFO guidance to $2.06 to $2.09 a share on October 2, 2026; CTRE closed at $36.28 that day.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "CareTrust REIT", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/CTRE/2026/q3", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/CTRE/2026/q3", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-02-1475841-4794f9e8ad", "reportId": "nbhc-2026-10-01", "ticker": "NBHC", "question": "Will National Bank keep paying 32 cents a share in its next dividend?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-02", "resolveBy": "2026-11-30", "resolveWhen": "when National Bank Holdings files a Form 8-K announcing its next quarterly dividend, or on November 30, 2026 if it files none", "reference": "The parent company held $131.8 million of cash in July, enough for about seven quarters of dividends and debt interest. The board added to its buyback on September 30, after concluding on September 28 that the losses were coming. The last dividend was $0.32 a share, declared August 4. NBHC closed at $39.155 on October 1, 2026.", "outcome": { "result": "push", "on": "2026-10-05", "because": "Replaced on 2026-10-05 by a question a machine can settle; see the call it points to.", "evidence": null }, "verdict": "push", "company": "National Bank Holdings", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/NBHC/2026/q3", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/NBHC/2026/q3", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-05-1475841-030bacff4c", "reportId": "nbhc-2026-10-01", "ticker": "NBHC", "question": "Will NBHC stock close above $38 on Nov 30?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-05", "resolveBy": "2026-11-30", "resolveWhen": "at the market close on November 30, 2026", "reference": "The parent held $131.8 million of cash in July and the board added to its buyback on September 30; NBHC closed at $38.07 on October 2, 2026.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "National Bank Holdings", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/NBHC/2026/q3", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/NBHC/2026/q3", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-02-1783398-3e87722013", "reportId": "uwmc-2026-10-01", "ticker": "UWMC", "question": "Will the backstop buyers fund more than half of UWM's rights offering?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-02", "resolveBy": "2026-12-31", "resolveWhen": "when UWM files the results of the rights offering and backstop purchases, or on December 31, 2026 if it files none", "reference": "The rights carry a minimum price of $2.00 a share, and the company says its stock trades below that floor. UWMC closed at $1.215 on October 1, 2026. Outside holders have little reason to pay $2.00, so most of the $400 million should come from the Ishbia family's backstop obligation or Oaktree's option.", "outcome": { "result": "push", "on": "2026-10-05", "because": "Replaced on 2026-10-05 by a question a machine can settle; see the call it points to.", "evidence": null }, "verdict": "push", "company": "UWM Holdings", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/UWMC/2026/q3", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/UWMC/2026/q3", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-05-1783398-a62f010b7c", "reportId": "uwmc-2026-10-01", "ticker": "UWMC", "question": "Will UWMC stock close above $2 on Dec 31?", "prediction": "no", "opened": "2026-10-05", "resolveBy": "2026-12-31", "resolveWhen": "at the market close on December 31, 2026", "reference": "The rights offering sets a $2.00 minimum price, which the company says is above where its stock trades; UWMC closed at $1.27 on October 2, 2026.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "UWM Holdings", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/UWMC/2026/q3", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/UWMC/2026/q3", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-02-1848309-be26e4ee4d", "reportId": "sgml-2026-10-01", "ticker": "SGML", "question": "Will Sigma's third-quarter report again raise doubt that it can stay in business?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-02", "resolveBy": "2026-12-31", "resolveWhen": "when Sigma Lithium files its management's discussion and analysis for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 on Form 6-K, or on December 31, 2026 if it files none", "reference": "The June 30 report already said negative working capital of $175.7 million may cast significant doubt on Sigma's ability to continue as a going concern. All mining and plant production stopped on September 30, with $16.7 million of cash at June 30 and a $105.9 million Synergy loan maturing December 13, 2026. SGML closed at $8.335 on October 1, 2026.", "outcome": { "result": "push", "on": "2026-10-05", "because": "Replaced on 2026-10-05 by a question a machine can settle; see the call it points to.", "evidence": null }, "verdict": "push", "company": "Sigma Lithium", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/SGML/2026/q3", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/SGML/2026/q3", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-05-1848309-7c9e14524d", "reportId": "sgml-2026-10-01", "ticker": "SGML", "question": "Will SGML stock close above $9 on Dec 31?", "prediction": "no", "opened": "2026-10-05", "resolveBy": "2026-12-31", "resolveWhen": "at the market close on December 31, 2026", "reference": "All mining and plant production stopped on September 30, with a $105.9 million Synergy loan due December 13, 2026; SGML closed at $9.09 on October 2, 2026.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "Sigma Lithium", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/SGML/2026/q3", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/SGML/2026/q3", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-02-1677576-8c7a3f192a", "reportId": "iipr-2026-10-01", "ticker": "IIPR", "question": "Will IIPR's life science assets top $375 million at the end of September?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-02", "resolveBy": "2026-11-30", "resolveWhen": "when IIPR files its Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2026", "reference": "Life science segment assets were $275.9 million at June 30, 2026. IIPR advanced about $111.0 million under the new Alewife Park loan on September 28, and the segment total counts the loan whichever line it is booked on. IIPR closed at $51.01 on October 1, 2026.", "outcome": { "result": "push", "on": "2026-10-05", "because": "Replaced on 2026-10-05 by a question a machine can settle; see the call it points to.", "evidence": null }, "verdict": "push", "company": "Innovative Industrial Properties", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/IIPR/2026/q3", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/IIPR/2026/q3", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-05-1677576-f11149ebc7", "reportId": "iipr-2026-10-01", "ticker": "IIPR", "question": "Will IIPR stock close above $51 on Nov 30?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-05", "resolveBy": "2026-11-30", "resolveWhen": "at the market close on November 30, 2026", "reference": "IIPR advanced about $111.0 million under the Alewife Park loan on September 28, growing its life science book; IIPR closed at $50.515 on October 2, 2026.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "Innovative Industrial Properties", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/IIPR/2026/q3", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/IIPR/2026/q3", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-02-817720-c347e12d08", "reportId": "syna-2026-10-01", "ticker": "SYNA", "question": "Will Synaptics holders vote yes on the onsemi cash deal by March 2027?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-02", "resolveBy": "2027-03-31", "resolveWhen": "when Synaptics files a Form 8-K reporting the vote on the onsemi merger, or on March 31, 2027 if it files none", "reference": "The board unanimously approved the amended deal after judging a rival offer no longer superior. The $123 cash price is about 19% above the old stock deal's value and about 21% above Synaptics' $101.40 close on September 30, 2026. A majority of all outstanding shares must vote yes; Ameriprise holds 19.0% and BlackRock 12.3%. SYNA closed at $101.40 and ON at $76.855 on September 30, 2026.", "outcome": { "result": "push", "on": "2026-10-05", "because": "Replaced on 2026-10-05 by a question a machine can settle; see the call it points to.", "evidence": null }, "verdict": "push", "company": "Synaptics", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/SYNA/2027/q1", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/SYNA/2027/q1", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-05-817720-dc4b6b9bc3", "reportId": "syna-2026-10-01", "ticker": "SYNA", "question": "Will SYNA stock close above $120 on March 31?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-05", "resolveBy": "2027-03-31", "resolveWhen": "at the market close on March 31, 2027", "reference": "onsemi's amended deal pays $123 a share in cash and the board backs it unanimously; SYNA closed at $121.05 on October 2, 2026.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "Synaptics", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/SYNA/2027/q1", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/SYNA/2027/q1", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-01-1091667-b88413afbe", "reportId": "chtr-2026-09-30", "ticker": "CHTR", "question": "Will Charter's next quarter report show under 113 million Class A shares?", "prediction": "no", "opened": "2026-10-01", "resolveBy": "2026-12-15", "resolveWhen": "when Charter files its Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, or on December 15, 2026", "reference": "Cox's 13D amendment counts 114,437,206 Class A shares at August 31, 2026; falling below 113 million would take buybacks of roughly 1.4 million more shares than employee issuance. Charter plans to cut debt toward 3.5 times adjusted EBITDA, had $365 million of buyback authority left at June 30, and bought only 31,315 shares under its program in June. CHTR closed at $110.95 on September 30, 2026.", "outcome": { "result": "push", "on": "2026-10-05", "because": "Replaced on 2026-10-05 by a question a machine can settle; see the call it points to.", "evidence": null }, "verdict": "push", "company": "Charter Communications", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/CHTR/2026/q3", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/CHTR/2026/q3", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-05-1091667-58e5328de4", "reportId": "chtr-2026-09-30", "ticker": "CHTR", "question": "Will CHTR stock close above $109 on Dec 15?", "prediction": "no", "opened": "2026-10-05", "resolveBy": "2026-12-15", "resolveWhen": "at the market close on December 15, 2026", "reference": "Charter is steering cash to debt reduction toward 3.5 times adjusted EBITDA and bought only 31,315 shares in June; CHTR closed at $109.27 on October 2, 2026.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "Charter Communications", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/CHTR/2026/q3", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/CHTR/2026/q3", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-01-1654126-bc6b88888d", "reportId": "zim-2026-09-30", "ticker": "ZIM", "question": "Will the sale of ZIM close by its first deadline, in February 2027?", "prediction": "no", "opened": "2026-10-01", "resolveBy": "2027-02-17", "resolveWhen": "when ZIM files a Form 6-K reporting that the merger with Hapag-Lloyd closed, or on February 17, 2027 if it files none", "reference": "Israel's Government Companies Authority stopped handling the state share application on September 29 after Hapag-Lloyd and FIMI missed its deadline for a detailed plan; Hapag-Lloyd says it will refile. The outside date of February 17, 2027 extends automatically to June 30, 2027. ZIM closed at $29.315 on September 30, 2026, against the $35.00 offer.", "outcome": { "result": "push", "on": "2026-10-05", "because": "Replaced on 2026-10-05 by a question a machine can settle; see the call it points to.", "evidence": null }, "verdict": "push", "company": "ZIM Integrated Shipping Services", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/ZIM/2026/q3", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/ZIM/2026/q3", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-05-1654126-881a7e804a", "reportId": "zim-2026-09-30", "ticker": "ZIM", "question": "Will ZIM stock close above $35 on Feb 17, 2027?", "prediction": "no", "opened": "2026-10-05", "resolveBy": "2027-02-17", "resolveWhen": "at the market close on February 17, 2027", "reference": "The Hapag-Lloyd and FIMI deal pays $35.00 a share; Israel stopped handling the state share application on September 29. ZIM closed at $29.65 on October 2, 2026.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "ZIM Integrated Shipping Services", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/ZIM/2026/q3", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/ZIM/2026/q3", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-01-48465-d0bf8e1c3a", "reportId": "hrl-2026-09-30", "ticker": "HRL", "question": "Will Hormel declare a quarterly dividend above $0.2925 a share in its first quarter of fiscal 2027?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-01", "resolveBy": "2027-03-31", "resolveWhen": "when Hormel files its Form 10-Q for the first quarter of fiscal 2027, or on March 31, 2027", "reference": "Hormel has raised its dividend for 60 straight years and lists the dividend as its first use of cash, but it is buying Brakebush with cash and new debt and repaying $500 million of notes in March 2027. HRL closed at $19.95 on September 30, 2026, after $19.85 on September 29, the day before the deal was announced.", "outcome": { "result": "push", "on": "2026-10-05", "because": "Replaced on 2026-10-05 by a question a machine can settle; see the call it points to.", "evidence": null }, "verdict": "push", "company": "Hormel Foods", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/HRL/2026/q4", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/HRL/2026/q4", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-05-48465-81da9652f0", "reportId": "hrl-2026-09-30", "ticker": "HRL", "question": "Will Hormel raise its dividend above 29.25 cents a share this winter?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-05", "resolveBy": "2027-03-31", "resolveWhen": "when Hormel files its Form 10-Q for the quarter ending about January 24, 2027", "reference": "Hormel has raised its dividend for 60 straight years and lists the dividend as its first use of cash, but it is buying Brakebush with cash and new debt and repaying $500 million of notes in March 2027. HRL closed at $19.95 on September 30, 2026, after $19.85 on September 29, the day before the deal was announced.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "Hormel Foods", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/HRL/2026/q4", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/HRL/2026/q4", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-01-1539838-1a7e4ddab6", "reportId": "fang-2026-09-30", "ticker": "FANG", "question": "Will Diamondback's next quarter report show it bought shares from the Stephens group?", "prediction": "no", "opened": "2026-10-01", "resolveBy": "2026-12-15", "resolveWhen": "when Diamondback files its Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, or on December 15, 2026", "reference": "SGF's Form 144 for its September 16, 2026 sale listed no sales in the prior three months, and the sale carried a 30-day lock-up. Diamondback bought none from SGF in the second quarter. FANG closed at $183.815 on September 30, 2026.", "outcome": { "result": "push", "on": "2026-10-05", "because": "Replaced on 2026-10-05 by a question a machine can settle; see the call it points to.", "evidence": null }, "verdict": "push", "company": "Diamondback Energy", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/FANG/2026/q3", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/FANG/2026/q3", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-05-1539838-516e119c1d", "reportId": "fang-2026-09-30", "ticker": "FANG", "question": "Will FANG stock close above $185 on Dec 15?", "prediction": "no", "opened": "2026-10-05", "resolveBy": "2026-12-15", "resolveWhen": "at the market close on December 15, 2026", "reference": "The Stephens group is selling Diamondback shares after its 30-day lock-up; FANG closed at $184.72 on October 2, 2026.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "Diamondback Energy", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/FANG/2026/q3", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/FANG/2026/q3", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-01-1964789-8dbfbb7668", "reportId": "hut-2026-09-30", "ticker": "HUT", "question": "Will Hut 8 borrow on its new credit line by the end of 2026?", "prediction": "yes", "opened": "2026-10-01", "resolveBy": "2027-03-31", "resolveWhen": "when Hut 8 files its Form 10-K for 2026, or on March 31, 2027", "reference": "Hut 8 had $233.6 million of unrestricted cash at June 30, 2026 after using about $649 million on operations and equipment in the first half, a $200 million loan due April 2027, and an undrawn $1.07 billion line closed September 24. HUT closed at $92.745 on September 29, 2026.", "outcome": { "result": "push", "on": "2026-10-05", "because": "Replaced on 2026-10-05 by a question a machine can settle; see the call it points to.", "evidence": null }, "verdict": "push", "company": "Hut 8", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/HUT/2026/q3", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/HUT/2026/q3", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } }, { "id": "2026-10-05-1964789-8ec4fb7861", "reportId": "hut-2026-09-30", "ticker": "HUT", "question": "Will HUT stock close above $90 on Dec 31?", "prediction": "no", "opened": "2026-10-05", "resolveBy": "2026-12-31", "resolveWhen": "at the market close on December 31, 2026", "reference": "Hut 8 used about $649 million on operations and equipment in the first half and holds an undrawn $1.07 billion line; HUT closed at $89.59 on October 2, 2026.", "outcome": null, "verdict": null, "company": "Hut 8", "reportUrl": "https://filecrux.com/r/HUT/2026/q3", "reportApiUrl": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports/HUT/2026/q3", "readerPicks": { "agree": 0, "disagree": 0 } } ], "accuracy": { "open": 60, "settled": 16, "right": 2, "wrong": 0, "push": 14 }, "note": "Every call Filecrux has published, read live from the call service. `verdict` is whether WE were right, not what the answer was: a call we predicted no that came back no is right. A push is settled but is neither a win nor a loss. `readerPicks` is how many signed-in readers agree and disagree with our call (null when it could not be read).", "links": { "self": "https://filecrux.com/v1/calls", "reports": "https://filecrux.com/v1/reports", "openapi": "https://filecrux.com/v1/openapi.json" } }